Member Services Desk Weekly Market Update

The Member Services Desk (MSD) Weekly Market Update was developed in response to member feedback and strives to deliver timely, relevant insights that support member business objectives. Each Friday, the update provides an overview of current market trends and key developments.

If you would like to receive the MSD Weekly Market Update in .pdf format (includes FHLBNY rate charts) or to discuss this content further, please email the MSD Team.

Recent Weekly Market Updates

10/30/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending October 30, 2026

As expected, the Fed paused on rate hikes at the past week’s FOMC meeting, while Fed President Warsh’s press conference leaned slightly dovish. Warsh noted that financial conditions have already tightened for some sectors, mainly via higher term rates, and he declared that “the accumulation of more information will help the committee”. Regarding the committee, however, there were two dissents in favor of a hike. Given these dissents and recent data, further hikes remain a distinct possibility. The week ahead offers a busy slate of economic data, highlighted by Friday’s monthly jobs report, as well as the midterm elections. There are also appearances by Fed speakers fresh out of their communications blackout...

10/23/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending October 23, 2026

Data released this past week reinforced the dour environment for housing-related metrics. The National Association of Home Builders sentiment index registered at its lowest level, except the early pandemic period, since 2012. Housing starts were weaker than forecast, and the National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales index posted, with declines in all regions, a record low for September. The market has pared back its pricing of Fed hikes since last week. The week ahead is heavy on data, but the clear focus will be on Wednesday’s FOMC outcome...

10/16/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending October 16, 2026

Except for housing-related data, economic reports this past week were mostly higher than expectations, led by the inflation and retail sales updates for September. Refer to the next section for further color on the inflation reports. The probability of a hike at the October 28th meeting, in turn, has ticked higher from a week ago to ~30%. The week ahead offers another set of housing-related reports but is devoid of higher-profile data. Fed Chair Warsh was scheduled to speak at the Bangkok IMF meeting in Bangkok at 11:30pm EST the night before this publication hits inboxes, so there is some potential for market-moving comments from this last event before the onset of the pre-FOMC meeting blackout...

10/09/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending October 9, 2026

Economic data this past week was on the lighter side and relatively uneventful market-wise. The FOMC Minutes for last month’s meeting were released this week and revealed that, while another hike appeared likely before yearend, it was not necessarily urgent to hike and will depend on incoming data. The probability of a hike at the October 28th meeting, therefore, has subsided from previously higher odds. The holiday-shortened week ahead carries a set of important inflation barometers and offers a handful of Fed speakers as well...

10/02/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending October 2, 2026

Economic data this past week generally portrayed activity and growth to be “holding up,” with consumer spending being underpinned by the wealth effect on well-off population cohorts and by lower personal savings rates. Meanwhile, elevated price pressures remain stubborn. Fedspeak was on the mildly hawkish side this past week, as another rate hike remains a distinct possibility for this year. The monthly jobs report, to be released just prior to this edition hitting inboxes, may spark some market movement and will conclude the week’s data blizzard. The week ahead is light on economic data but offers a handful of Fed speakers. Also, the release of last month’s FOMC Minutes should reveal insights on the Fed’s rate-hike decision and the potential path forward...

09/25/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending September 25, 2026

A few better-than-expected datasets, particularly Wednesday’s S&P Global US Activity report, sparked a dramatic rise in yields to multiyear highs this past week. A rebound in oil prices and a few hawkish Fed member comments added to the pressure. The market, as of midday Thursday, priced for ~3.9 25-bps hikes by October 2027, essentially adding a hike from a week ago. The week ahead is heavy on economic data and offers a plethora of Fedspeak...

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