Member Services Desk Weekly Market Update

The Member Services Desk (MSD) Weekly Market Update was developed in response to member feedback and strives to deliver timely, relevant insights that support member business objectives. Each Friday, the update provides an overview of current market trends and key developments.

If you would like to receive the MSD Weekly Market Update in .pdf format (includes FHLBNY rate charts) or to discuss this content further, please email the MSD Team.

Recent Weekly Market Updates

08/07/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending August 7, 2026

Economic reports this past week were generally mixed and limited in impact. The ADP monthly private jobs report posted well below expectations, but Friday’s BLS monthly jobs report, to be released just before this publication reaches inboxes, has greater influence on markets and the Fed. Lingering price pressures, meanwhile, remain evident in data releases. Apparent progress on a partial agreement in the Mideast conflict spurred a slight drop in yields through mid-week. But the situation remains decidedly fluid, thereby leaving its potential impact on inflation still intact. However, at this stage, the market reaction function has decreased unless and until actual agreements take hold. Looking beyond the Friday morning jobs report, the week ahead data-wise is quieter and of a more second-tier nature...

07/31/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending July 31, 2026

Economic reports this past week were mixed and relatively non-impactful market-wise. A few housing reports posted slightly better than expectations and poor results the month prior. Inflation and growth data, meanwhile, were generally milder than prior readings. Clearly, the main event of the week was the FOMC outcome. Policy rates were left unchanged, and the unchanged statement and initial comments from Chair Warsh in the press briefing contained hawkish overtones. Also, three of the twelve voters dissented in favor of a rate hike. However, as the press conference dragged on, the market’s response was to notably steepen the curve. The market appears to be questioning Warsh’s true demeanor, as in, “talk is cheap,” about delivering 2% inflation or price stability, unless the Fed were to boost its credibility via a rate hike(s) and/or provide clearer guidance/metrics on potential forthcoming hikes. The market repriced the prospective Fed path and moved the front-end of the curve lower, while longer-tenor yields moved higher on perceived higher inflation risk and term premium. In the meantime, the Mideast situation remains unresolved and fluid, thereby leaving its potential impact on inflation still intact. Labor market data highlights the week ahead, with the jobs report the prime report...

07/24/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending July 24, 2026

Economic reports this past week were on the light side and of second-tier influence. Recent improved sentiment and inflation readings have been, at least in part, due to the decline in energy prices in June. But the past two weeks have proven that the Mideast situation is clearly unresolved and fluid, thereby leaving its impact on prices potentially still intact. Indeed, energy and commodity prices have undergone a dramatic rebound higher in the past week. The upcoming FOMC meeting announcement will occur on Wednesday afternoon at 2 p.m. While the lower-than-expected CPI report this month has likely provided breathing room for the Fed to remain on hold, the turn in Mideast events will surely play a role in deliberations among Fed committee members. As of this writing Thursday afternoon, the market prices a 37% chance of a 25-bps hike at the meeting....

07/17/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending July 17, 2026

Economic reports this past week were generally better than expected on both the inflation and business activity front. We provide color herein on the inflation data which spurred a decline in yields. Various survey results portrayed modestly better business sentiment, with the Empire Manufacturing, NY Fed Business Leaders, and Philadelphia Fed Business surveys all posting improvements. The notable exceptions to the improved data were the decidedly worse-than-expected results from the NAHB Housing Market Index and NAR Pending Home Sales data; the former report registered its lowest level of the year, while the latter posted a 5-month low. Elevated rates and challenging affordability continue to be headwinds to improvement in the housing sector. Improved sentiment and inflation readings are likely, at least in part, due to the decline in energy prices in June. But the past week has proven that the Mideast situation remains both unresolved and fluid, thereby leaving its impact on prices potentially still intact...

07/03/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending July 03, 2026

Housing reports this past week portrayed a backdrop of mild expansion and subdued price gains. For instance, the S&P Cotality National Price Index rose .84% Y-o-Y in April, while the 20-City index increased by 1.14% Y-o-Y. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report improved slightly in June, as expectations improved likely due to moderation in oil and gas prices. Yet confidence remains historically weak, with consumers anxious about job availability. Given the increase in job openings revealed in the past week’s BLS JOLTS report, the consumer anxiety about jobs is likely due to labor market mismatches. This Thursday morning’s employment situation report, although frequently revised, is considered the tier-1 synopsis of labor market conditions. It revealed a modest increase of 57k jobs vs. the survey estimate of 113k. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.20%. The Mideast quasi-resolution has helped to dial down inflation expectations, at least for now. The situation remains fluid, although parties appear resigned to avoiding lasting flare-ups...

06/26/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending June 26, 2026

The past week’s economic reports were generally near expectations, although new home sales registered a subpar surprise for May. The Fed’s favored inflation barometer, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator index, rose .4% M-o-M in May, or slightly below the market’s expectation of .5%. This result prompted a dip in yields on Thursday morning. But it should be noted that the core-PCE, at .3% M-o-M, remains well above the Fed’s target. Moreover, the core reading for April was revised up from .2 to .3%. The Mideast quasi-resolution has helped to contain term yields and dial down inflation expectations, at least for now. But the situation remains fluid. Note that Friday, July 3rd is a market holiday but not a banking holiday; the FHLBNY will be open. Also note that there is an early-market close on Thursday, July 2nd. Kindly consult with the desk regarding transactions near this timeframe.

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