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Economic Perspectives

Breaking the Record: United States Economic Expansion
Enters Its Eleventh Year

Authored by Brian Jones, FHLBNY Financial Economist


July 15, 2019

  • Current economic expansion is now the longest in U.S. history, but remains the slowest since WW II
  • Labor productivity and compensation costs growth weakest of any post-WW II cyclical upturn
  • Other data compare favorably to those of the previous decade-long expansion
  • U.S. expansion third longest among developing countries, but still shy of other record holders
  • Probability of a near-term downturn negligible, inverted yield curve remains a concern further out
  • Official institutions and private forecasters expect the current upturn to continue through 2021

Tearing June’s page from the calendar, the current business cycle upturn became the longest in our Nation’s history. More than double the average 58.4-month duration of prior post-World War II expansions, the recovery from the Great Recession…

Disclaimer. The Federal Home Loan Bank of New York (“FHLBNY”) is providing this report for informational purposes only. This report should not be construed as an opinion, recommendation, or solicitation regarding the use of any financial strategy and/or the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The recipients of this report are advised to conduct their own independent due diligence and consult with financial advisors, accountants, and attorneys before making any investment, credit, or any other financial decisions. FHLBNY does not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this report. The past performance of any FHLBNY service or product should not be viewed as a guarantee of future results. The information contained in this report, as well as the services and products provided by the FHLBNY, may change at any time without notice.

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