Financial Intelligence

How Close to a Tipping Point?

Presented by our Financial Economist, Brian Jones

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Responding to the ongoing surge in consumer price inflation, the Federal Open Market Committee has embarked on what likely will prove the most aggressive tightening of monetary policy in decades. With real GDP contracting slightly during the winter and tracking estimates for the quarter just passed coming down, fears of an impending recession have risen. Yet, economic gauges used by the National Bureau of Economic Research and recession probability models suggest the little risk of a business-cycle downturn.

What likely lies ahead for the national and local economies over the remainder of this year and next? Considering that much of the pickup in prices has been attributable to supply-related issues, will policymakers be able to successfully rein in inflation without throwing the economy into recession? What measures should we be following to gauge whether the expansion is close to an end? What are the implications for interest rates and financial markets? What are the prospects for labor markets and housing? How about commercial real estate markets? How will the FHLBNY district fare over the next 18 months?

Watch FHLBNY financial economist Brian Jones discuss these questions and other timely topics that will help your institution prepare for what may lie ahead.

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