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Financial Intelligence

Beyond the Recovery Phase
of the Economic Expansion

Presented by: Brian Jones, Financial Economist, FHLBNY

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Consistent with recession probability models, the National Bureau of Economic Research announced in mid-July that the recession triggered by the public healthcare crisis ended in April 2020 and that an economic expansion has been underway since. Accommodative monetary and fiscal policies and expanding vaccinations across the country have boosted business activity and hiring. While key labor-market gauges have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels, all the real output lost to the coronavirus was recovered by the spring.

What lies ahead for the national and local economies over the remainder of 2021 and 2022? How long can the pace of domestic business activity remain above its long-term trend? Will fiscal programs supported by massive deficit spending add meaningfully to growth? What are the implications for interest rates and financial markets? What are the prospects for labor markets and inflation going forward? Will residential real estate markets remain exceptionally tight? What about commercial real estate markets? Will activity in the FHLBNY district continue to lag the remainder of the Nation or catch up as shots are administered? Join FHLBNY financial economist Brian Jones to discuss these questions and other timely topics that will help your institution prepare for the year ahead.

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