Member Services Desk Weekly Market Update

This MSD Weekly Market Update reflects information for the week ending November 13, 2026.

Economist Views

THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR HIGHLIGHTS
Date Time	Event	Period	Survey	Prior
11/16/26 8:30	Empire Manufacturing	Nov	17.00	25.50
11/17/26 8:30	Retail Sales Advance MoM	Oct	0.10%	0.80%
11/17/26 9:15	Industrial Production MoM	Oct	0.10%	0.70%
11/18/26 7:00	MBA Mortgage Applications	13-Nov	--	6.20%
11/18/26 8:30	Housing Starts	Oct	1,230k	1,221k
11/18/26 8:30	Building Permits	Oct P	1,378k	1,398k
11/18/26 10:00	Pending Home Sales MoM	Oct	--	-7.30%
11/19/26 8:30	Initial Jobless Claims	14-Nov	--	200k
11/19/26 8:30	Continuing Claims	7-Nov	--	1,697k
11/20/26 10:00	U. of Mich. Sentiment	Nov F	--	51.00

Economic data this week mostly registered higher than forecast; we review this dynamic in one of our charts. In the wake of last week’s labor market-related data, which portrayed relative stability, and then this past week’s still-elevated inflation readings, a hike at the Fed’s December 9th meeting appears more certain. Indeed, Fed Governor Waller this past week even expressed openness to the prospect of a 50-bps hike. The upcoming week offers a plethora of data and Fed voting-member appearances; the October 28th FOMC Minutes will also be released on Wednesday.

Empire Manufacturing: Last month’s report was notably better than expectations and portrayed improved activity and employment, although persistent price pressures were also a feature. The fresh report will reveal if the improved trend has been sustained in the past month.

Retail Sales: Headline sales registered a strong increase in last month’s release for September, although much of the rise was energy/gas-driven; indeed, the ex-auto and gas figures ticked lower from the prior month. The fresh October data is forecast to post a decline in the headline but mild upticks in the core readings. Note that this dataset is not inflation-adjusted.

Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization: Production was stronger in September, but a chunk of the headline increase was from a surge in utilities. The manufacturing component posted a moderate rise. The headline is forecast to rise slightly in the October report. Capacity Utilization, meanwhile, is forecast to tick .1% lower and thereby remain below its long-run average of 79.4%.

Mortgage Applications: The headline index for the week ending November 6th came through higher by 6.20% on the back of the 10-year Treasury rally.

Housing Starts: The fresh October report hopes to improve on last month’s poor 5.2% MoM drop; the consensus forecast is that starts will register a gain in October.

Building Permits (Preliminary): Permits were also soft last month and posted a slight MoM decline, with notable weakness in the single-family sector. Improvement in October appears doubtful.

Pending Home Sales: Last month’s report added to the dour housing sector data, as the 7.3% MoM slide and record-low index suggested that rates were restraining activity and imperiling existing-home closings over the ensuing months. Perhaps the downward trend in rates since early-October will provide support to the fresh October readings.

Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims: Initial claims for the week ending November 7th were 200k, with the 4-week moving average at 195.25k and Continuing Claims 1,697k. This dataset’s continuing steady trend has served as high-frequency evidence of relative labor market stability.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final): The final readings will follow a better-than-expected preliminary report released last week. Overall sentiment, however, remained near historically low levels, and inflation expectations were still elevated.

Federal Reserve Bank Member Appearances:

• 11/16/2026 09:05 NY Fed President Williams gives opening remarks at 2026 FX Market Structure Conference.
• 11/16/2026 12:00 Fed Chair Warsh gives opening remarks at a Productivity and Jobs Task Force gathering.
• 11/17/2026 09:30 Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks at Brookings Institution on UST market.
• 11/19/2026 08:50 Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivers opening remarks at 14th annual Financial Stability Conference.
• 11/19/2026 18:30 Philadelphia Fed President Paulson speaks at Money Marketeers event.

UPCOMING WEEK'S US TREASURY AUCTIONS
Bills	Offering Amount	Auction Date -- Settle Date
4-Week; 8-Week
13-Week; 26-Week	$95bln; $82bln	11/16 -- 11/19
6-Week	$100bln	11/17 -- 11/19
Bonds	Offering Amount	Auction Date -- Settle Date
20-Year	$20bln	11/18 -- 11/30
TIPs	Offering Amount	Auction Date -- Settle Date
9-Year 8-Month	$19bln	11/19 -- 11/30

Key Market Trends

Source: Bloomberg. As seen here in the Citi Economic Surprise Index, data announcements since Labor Day have been higher than consensus expectations. This trend has been particularly notable in recent weeks. A contributor to the dynamic has surely been inflation data. Shown here are the YTD MoM core-CPI readings which remain elevated and at a trend above the Fed’s stated 2% annual goal. This past Tuesday’s .3% MoM reading was above the market consensus expectation of .2%. Core-goods ex-auto rose .4% MoM, in a broad-based rise of index components. The latest CPI reading casts doubt on progress on inflation and perhaps cements the likelihood of a hike at the December 9th FOMC. Indeed, on Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the CPI print, the market upped the chances off a 25-bps hike to 100% and priced a ~13% probability of a 50-bps hike.

Source: Bloomberg. Top pane is yield (LHS, %); bottom pane is change (LHS, bps). As of Thursday afternoon, the UST term curve was higher by 5-40 bps on the post election selloff. As of late Thursday afternoon, the December 10th Fed Funds forward, 4.16%, is 11.3 bps higher than last week and equates to ~100% chance of one 25-bps hike at the December 9th FOMC and 13% chance of a 50-bps hike. The peak forward remains September of next year; at 4.765%, it is 48 bps higher than a week ago and equates to ~3.5 25-bps hikes.

Source: Bloomberg. As we have noted in previous editions, Money Market Fund (MMF) AUM growth in 2026 has notably lagged that of the previous few years. That trend has impacted demand for T-bill and short-end paper, and, in turn, impacted our issuance and advance levels. However, the week ending November 4th experienced the 7th largest MMF inflow ever with an AUM increase, as seen here, of ~115bn to reach a new record-high. The inflow likely helped the retreat of SOFR this past week, and our short-end issuance and advance levels have also enjoyed some improvement (relative to the SOFR swap curve) in the past two weeks. Strategists expect further seasonal inflows to MMFs through the end of the year. While this trend should be helpful, uncertainty over Fed policy may keep MMFs in a continued “keeping-short” WAM posture.

Source: Bloomberg. Here is a longer-term vantage point of MMF AUM and bank deposits. The main takeaway is that bank deposits have recovered and generally kept pace with MMF AUM growth since the aftermath of the March 2023 banking industry episode. Using June 2023 as a starting point, deposits have roughly matched the increase in MMF AUM, with both having risen by ~$2.6trn from then until now. Also shown here is the Fed Funds rate and its potential implications on growth in these sectors; rates rising off previous rock-bottom levels especially inspired MMF growth.

FHLBNY Advance Rates Observations

Front-End Rates

• As of Thursday morning, and relative to last Thursday morning, short tenors were relatively flat for 1- to 3-week advances and 11-13 bps higher for 5- to 6-month advances from the week prior. The dynamics of net-positive T-Bill supply, Money Market Funds (MMFs) shortening WAM with the Fed in play, and investors demanding higher premiums in the short-end conspired to widen Bill spreads, and, in turn, our funding spreads to the SOFR curve during most of October (please call the desk and/or refer to previous editions for further color). But the past few weeks have seen improvement in Bill and our spreads from the widest levels.
• Net T-Bill and UST supply will remain positive in the upcoming week. UST and T-bill auction settlements, when net positive, can extract cash from the markets and potentially exert upward pressure on repo and thereby impact our short-tenor advance levels. SOFR has retreated from briefly elevated levels around October-end, and it now appears likely to straddle the Fed’s 3.90% IORB rate and perhaps trade a few bps above it on high-settlement days. Meanwhile, GSE cash should enter and help financing markets this upcoming week, prior to leaving to pay MBS coupons near the 25th of the month. While financing conditions have been tranquil enough for the Fed to keep its RMP on pause since August, persistent and further notable upward pressure on SOFR could prompt an RMP restart. However, the turn lower in SOFR this past week would seem to make an imminent move unlikely.

Term Rates

• The longer-term curve, as of Thursday afternoon and generally mirroring the moves in USTs and swaps, was higher by 28-41 bps vs. the week prior. Please refer to the previous section for color on market dynamics and changes.
• On the UST term supply front, the upcoming week serves a set of auctions for 20Y bonds and a re-opening of 10Y TIPs. Note that UST auctions usually occur at 1pm and can occasionally spur volatility around that time. Please contact the Member Services Desk for further information on market dynamics, rate levels, or products.