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Member Services Desk (MSD) Weekly Market Update

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The Member Services Desk (MSD) Weekly Market Update was developed in response to member feedback and strives to deliver timely, relevant insights that support member business objectives. Each Friday, the update provides an overview of current market trends and key developments.
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December 5, 2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending December 05, 2025

The highlight of the upcoming week will be the December 10th FOMC meeting. While the probability of a 25-bps Fed cut fell to ~30% at one juncture in the last week of November, it subsequently rebounded higher and now hovers ~90%. In public comments, various Fed members had expressed concern about inflationary pressures, but others subsequently expressed firm comfort with another cut. Economic data has been overall mixed but appears to have revealed enough of a weak tone for another “risk management” rate ease. With the government shutdown over, some delayed data has been released, however, much of it has been stale and many reports are still to be scheduled/released. This situation makes economic assessments and the Fed’s decision more difficult, and the ongoing tug-of-war between employment and inflation forces should spur lively debate within the Fed and likely some dissents on the official outcome. Note that a fresh Summary of Economic Projections, aka “dot plot”, will be released along with the rate decision and statement.

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Photo - Frank Farone 2025
Back by popular demand, Frank Farone, Managing Director of Darling Consulting Group, returns to join us once again for an informative session focused on Liquidity and Asset/Liability Management. Frank will address key challenges and provide actionable strategies to help FHLBNY members stay resilient and take advantage of the new rate environment now and in the months/years to come.
What goes up must come down
We are now experiencing a “higher for longer” phase in the interest-rate cycle, accompanied by an inversion in the short-to medium terms followed by a steepening (see following chart). The Fed is still in a restrictive posture, but market expectations indicate a near-term easing, however, uncertainty surrounding the potential of future heightened growth leading to elevated inflation is causing steepening at the longer-end of the curve…
2023 Kristina Hooper Webinar
Kristina Hooper discusses her outlook for the economy and markets for the remainder of 2023 and beyond. From recent challenges in the banking industry to inflation to earnings, 2023 has already faced a variety of uncertainties…
2025 Kristina Hooper Webinar
Inflation has cooled substantially in most major economies, with no significant downturn in global growth. And it appears that the long-anticipated “soft landing” has arrived, so what happens next? Back by popular demand, Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist at Invesco, discusses her 2025 Investment Outlook.
FHLBNY Municipal Letters of Credit
Our Municipal Letter of Credit (MULOC) Program is a reliable and secure form of collateralization for State and municipal deposits in all operating environments. During recent severe market stress our MULOCs performed as designed, with municipal deposits remaining fully collateralized, safe and secure. For more information regarding the benefits and the safety of the FHLBNY’s MULOC program…
Liquidity challenges FI
We are delighted to host our first informative session of 2023. This webinar will address current and upcoming liquidity challenges in our industry and what credit unions should consider doing to develop a “best practice” approach to liquidity management. Deposits are down, cash levels are shrinking, and wholesale funding is on the rise…
Ricardo FI Image B
We are delighted to host another informative session with Deloitte subject matter specialists on key ESG concepts. There is an increased focus on Environment, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors for financial institutions, with an emphasis on Climate Risk…
08.04 Brian Jones FI
Responding to the ongoing surge in consumer price inflation, the Federal Open Market Committee has embarked on what likely will prove the most aggressive tightening of monetary policy in decades. With real GDP contracting slightly during the winter and tracking estimates for the quarter just passed coming down, fears of an impending recession have risen…
07.12 K-Hooper Orange-2 FI
In this webinar, Kristina Hooper walks through Invesco’s 2022 Mid-Year Investment Outlook, a practical guide to help FHLBNY members make more informed decisions. At the midpoint of 2022, COVID-19’s remarkable effects on economies and policies remain top of mind, but a new set of uncertainties has also entered the picture – inflation, central bank tightening, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine….
The NEV Test FI
In this webinar for Credit Unions, Frank Farone, Managing Director at Darling Consulting Group, addresses the recent operating environment and what that means for the Net Economic Value (NEV) Supervisory Test…
FI Image Rate Cycle
With economic activity expanding at an above-trend pace and consumer prices climbing at the fastest pace in four decades, we are entering a new phase of the interest-rate cycle with the Federal Reserve shifting to a less- accommodative monetary policy stance…
FHLBNY ESG session
Environment Social Governance (ESG) cuts across all business operations and is expected to grow in prevalence across the financial services industry. Enjoy this thought-provoking discussion about ESG from the NJBankers Economic Leadership Forum, featuring…
Market Outlook KH Event
Kristina Hooper, CFP®, CAIA, CIMA®, ChFC®, Invesco’s Chief Global Marketing Strategist, walks through Invesco’s 2022 Investment Outlook, a practical guide to help FHLBNY members make more informed investment decisions. Following dramatic fiscal and monetary policy moves in…
Advance Rebate
Under the Advance Rebate Program, which represents an enhancement to our current advance prepayment methodology, the FHLBNY will provide members with a cash rebate on a portion of the fees paid relating to the early extinguishment of eligible advances when…
Year End FI Image
In case you were unable to view the live webinar on December 9, 2021—Your Trusted Partner Through All Operating Environments: A Fireside Chat with José R. González, President and CEO, Presented by FHLBNY…
Interest Rate Swap
Interest Rate Swaps can be an effective tool in managing asset/liability mismatches present in many of our member’s balance sheets. Mismatches occur when a member funds long-term assets using short-term liabilities, or vice versa. Interest Rate Swaps involve…
Creating a High Performing ALCO: Making the Complex, Simple!
Join Darling Consulting Group Managing Director, Frank Farone, for this timely and strategically focused webinar. This session will provide a roadmap to create a highly efficient asset-liability management…
Beyond the Recovery Phase of the Economic Expansion
Consistent with recession probability models, the National Bureau of Economic Research announced in mid-July that the recession triggered by the public healthcare crisis ended in April 2020…
The Value of Loan Pricing thumbnail scaled
FHLBNY Municipal Letter of Credit (MULOC) product allows qualified depository institution members to collateralize municipal deposits with a low-cost letter of credit secured by whole-loan…
Taking Stock of the Current Economic Expansion
On a monthly basis, the recovery from the pandemic-induced shuttering of the U.S. economy marked its one-year anniversary in April. Buoyed by massive fiscal support and expanding COVID-19 vaccinations…
Crisis Regulation and Tech
In this one-hour session, Professor Thomas P. Vartanian will discuss his new book, 200 Years of American Financial Panics: Crashes, Recessions, Depressions, And The Technology That Will Change It All, and synthesize the history and causes of…
Evolution of Payments
After a long period of gradual advancements, we see an accelerated pace of change and innovation across the payment space. The financial services industry will undoubtedly have to adapt quickly to these coming changes. In this one-hour session…
ESG and Climate Risk
There is an increased focus on Environment, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors for financial institutions, and opportunities for your organization to reap the benefits of acting in the long term. This presentation will provide participants with an introduction to ESG concepts…
The Evolution of CDFIs and Their Growing Partnership Opportunity with the FHLBNY
A discussion about the growing partnership between CDFIs and the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York. Our special guest presenter, Clifford Rosenthal, has served in the CDFI movement’s leadership…
LIBOR Transition: Fourth Quarter or Overtime?
The transition away from LIBOR has been years in the making. This year was to be the Fourth Quarter with the end of LIBOR targeted to be December 31, 2021. Recently, the Official Sector confirmed…
You cant predict Event
Back by popular demand, Scott Hildenbrand presents a timely discussion focused on balance sheet strategies and tactics in the current operating environment…
The Next M&A Wave is Here
As we emerge from the current COVID-19 crisis, we are seeing significant structural changes occurring within the financial industries that are certain to impact the pace of M&A. The low-rate environment…
BalanceSheetStrat FI
As we enter 2021, lower interest margins and net interest income pressures continue across the industry with no end in sight. Credit-related uncertainties and concerns are also notably elevated, as evidenced by a spike in CECL/ALLL provisions…
Our Year of the Pandemic
Despite the very difficult operating environment driven by the pandemic, many FHLBNY members actually increased profits in 2020. This webinar provides a look at the pandemic, the current and future state of our industry, and how to apply…
Turning Pages
The year ahead appears poised to be a turning point for the U.S. and local economies. The discovery and growing distribution of vaccines against COVID-19 should allow a return to some normalcy later this year. At the same time, a new administration in Washington implies that fiscal policy will play a greater role as business activity recovers from the health crisis.
Starting the Year
As we enter a new year still amid a global pandemic, it is becoming quite clear that 2021 will begin with a tremendous amount of uncertainty. The new year will pose a challenging operating environment to our members marked by strong headwinds and some of the following unanswered questions…
Balance Sheet Strategies vs. Tactics: Preparing for Q4 and 2021
There are effective tactics worth examining and executing in today’s rate environment and economic landscape. But don’t get comfortable that you have set a strategy simply by executing tactics…
Sidebar
The COVID-19 pandemic has made it even more clear that community financial institutions matter. It has also highlighted an open secret – outdated technology is holding back the industry, and banks…
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