Member Services Desk Weekly Market Update

This MSD Weekly Market Update reflects information for the week ending October 30, 2026.

Economist Views

THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR HIGHLIGHTS
Date Time	Event	Period	Survey	Prior
11/2/26 10:00	ISM Manufacturing	Oct	54.70	54.50
11/3/26 10:00	JOLTS Job Openings	Sep	7,134k	7,079k
11/4/26 7:00	MBA Mortgage Applications	30-Oct	--	3.40%
11/4/26 8:15	ADP Employment Change	Oct	75k	90k
11/4/26 10:00	ISM Services Index	Oct	54.80	54.90
11/5/26 8:30	Initial Jobless Claims	31-Oct	--	194k
11/6/26 8:30	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	Oct	65k	29k
11/6/26 8:30	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	Oct	--	-60k
11/6/26 8:30	Unemployment Rate	Oct	4.20%	4.20%
11/6/26 10:00	U. of Mich. Sentiment	Nov P	47.00	48.00

As expected, the Fed paused on rate hikes at the past week’s FOMC meeting, while Fed President Warsh’s press conference leaned slightly dovish. Warsh noted that financial conditions have already tightened for some sectors, mainly via higher term rates, and he declared that “the accumulation of more information will help the committee.” Regarding the committee, however, there were two dissents in favor of a hike. Given these dissents and recent data, further hikes remain a distinct possibility. The week ahead offers a busy slate of economic data, highlighted by Friday’s monthly jobs report, as well as the midterm elections. There are also appearances by Fed speakers fresh out of their communications blackout.

ISM Manufacturing: Forecasts for the October survey report call for a tenth consecutive month of expansion, denoted by an above-50 reading on the headline index. This report has recently portrayed conditions as relatively stable except for ongoing intensity in inflation pressures.

Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey: Last month’s report for August revealed that labor demand remained steady, with 7.1mn job openings, while subdued hiring, quits, and layoffs continued to portray a non-dynamic market. A similar report for September appears likely, with expectations for a slight rise in job openings.

Mortgage Applications: Bucking the recent trend, the headline index for the week ending October 23rd ticked up by 3.4%, with slightly lower rates likely providing the support.

ADP Monthly Employment Change: Following last month’s rebound from a three-month slowdown, the October private payrolls figure is expected to dip from 90 to 75K.

ISM Services: The headline survey index is expected to tick .1 higher from September’s 54.9 print and thereby remain in above-50 expansion territory for the 28th straight month. Key to watch will be the Prices Paid barometer, which last month spiked to its highest level since mid-2022.

Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims: Initial claims for the week ending October 24th fell by 1K, with the 4-week moving average ticking 1.25K lower. Continuing Claims fell by 21K, essentially reversing the prior week’s move. This dataset’s continuing steady trend has served as high-frequency evidence of relative, albeit non-dynamic, labor market stability.

Employment Situation Monthly Report: Payrolls for October are expected to rise to 72K from last month’s 29K, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. The general takeaway from this dataset is that the labor market remains relatively non-dynamic, with low layoffs but low hiring too. Note that this dataset is also prone to subsequent revisions; for instance, last month’s report shaved the July/August payroll numbers by ~60K.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary): The preliminary update will follow a decidedly downbeat September report, which portrayed deteriorating perceptions of current conditions, as well as an uptick in inflation expectations.

Federal Reserve Bank Member Appearances:

• 11/05/2026 08:50 Cleveland Fed President Hammack joins panel at Swiss National Bank event in Zurich.
• 11/05/2026 09:10 Richmond Fed President Barkin participates in moderated conversation at CFO Summit in Charlotte.
• 11/05/2026 19:00 Dallas Fed President Logan leads discussion at Dallas Fed’s Global Perspective series event.
• 11/06/2026 10:00 NY Fed President Williams delivers lecture at Institute for Monetary & Financial Stability.

UPCOMING WEEK'S US TREASURY AUCTIONS
Bills	Offering Amount	Auction Date -- Settle Date
4-Week; 8-Week
13-Week; 26-Week	$95bln; $82bln	11/2 -- 11/5
6-Week	$110bln	11/3 -- 11/5
Notes	Offering Amount	Auction Date -- Settle Date
No scheduled offerings.
Bonds/FRNs/TIPs	Offering Amount	Auction Date -- Settle Date
No scheduled offerings.

Key Market Trends

Source: Bloomberg. The Fed’s basic dual mandate is to maximize employment and maintain price stability. Here we can see a few reasons for another rate hike to remain on the table at upcoming Fed meetings. The employment side of the mandate has been mostly steady, albeit non-dynamic. Initial and continuing jobless claims have been on a general downward-to-steady trend in recent months. Meanwhile, inflation pressures remain sticky. The latest core-PCE inflation reading of .32% MoM was higher than the month prior and translates to a YoY rate well above the Fed’s 2% goal. Moreover, not shown here, the first estimate of Q3 real-GDP was announced this week at 3.4%, up from Q2’s 2.2%, helped by business investment (AI-driven) and resilient consumer spending. The GDP figures are heavily subject to revision, but the overall takeaway is that growth and employment are not currently impediments to another rate hike to address the sticky inflation situation.

Source: Bloomberg. Top pane is yield (LHS, %); bottom pane is change (LHS, bps). As of Thursday afternoon, the UST term curve was modestly steeper from a week ago, with shorter tenors relatively unchanged but 5-year-and-out higher by two to four bps. As of late Thursday afternoon, the 2026 year-end forward, 4.085%, is 1.5 bps lower than last week and equates to ~82% chance of one 25-bps hike at the December 9th FOMC. The peak forward remains September of next year; at 4.51%, it is a bp lower than a week ago and equates to ~2.5 25-bps hikes, and it remains well above the Fed’s last dot plot median peak of 4.125%. The busier data week ahead, along with midterm elections, may provide a spark to more notable moves in yields.

Source: Bloomberg. The dip in yields of the past few weeks helped mortgage activity “get off the mat” in the week ending the 23rd and thereby break a string of weekly declines, as seen here in the Mortgage Bankers Association index. This past week’s results will be released on Wednesday; any momentum appears unlikely to be sharp, however, given persistent home affordability challenges. Nonetheless, the modest rates relief and associated uptick in activity is certainly a welcome dynamic.

Source: Bloomberg. In terms of supply and demand dynamics in the fixed income market, here we can see that there has certainly been supply! Included in these tallies of global bond issuance are sovereign, investment grade, and high-yield bonds sold via publicly syndicated deals. At $6.61trn, the YTD-2026 tally has already equaled 2025, a record year, and there are still two months left in 2026. The increase this year has been AI-led by cloud-computing giants and data-center developers. And the tap keeps running; indeed, while preparing this publication, Microsoft announced a $25bn multi-tranche bond deal. Given its strong credit rating, this deal has been met with strong demand, with reported orders of $115bn. But the overall supply increase can serve to sharpen competition for capital and is surely a contributor to the increase in term premium and yields experienced this year.

FHLBNY Advance Rates Observations

Front-End Rates

• As of Thursday morning, and relative to last Thursday morning, short tenors were lower by 2 to 5 bps. The 1-week was an outlier, as it dropped by 13 bps. A confluence of factors late in the past week prompted the lower levels. For one, the Fed did not hike rates, thereby removing the slight probability of that occurrence from the curve. Secondly, issuance spreads on both T-Bills and our short-term paper stabilized and improved a tad late in the week. The dynamics of net-positive T-Bill supply, Money Market Funds (MMFs) shortening WAM with the Fed in play, and investors demanding higher premiums in the short-end have conspired to widen Bill spreads, and, in turn, our funding spreads to the SOFR curve in the past month (please call the Member Services Desk and/or refer to the previous editions for further color). In terms of overnight financing conditions and SOFR behavior, Fed purchases of T-bills via MBS portfolio principal reinvestments and its Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) program had greased stability in financing markets and helped blunt reactions to any net positive UST and T-bill issuance and/or month and quarter-end periods. Improved dealer intermediation, via lighter regulatory constraints, has also benefited very short-term liquidity. However, while these financing conditions have been tranquil enough that the Fed’s RMP remains on pause until further notice, the UST/T-Bill supply, month-end, and Canadian yearend helped to push SOFR above IORB in the past week and may eventually prompt the Fed to restart the RMP.
• Net T-Bill and UST supply will remain positive in the upcoming week. UST and T-bill auction settlements, when net positive, can extract cash from the markets and potentially exert upward pressure on repo and thereby impact our short-tenor advance levels. Last week, we noted that SOFR was likely to test the 3.90% IORB rate more steadily, but now it appears likely to straddle at or above the Fed’s 3.90% IORB rate and trade above it on high-settlement days.

Term Rates

• The longer-term curve, as of Thursday afternoon and generally mirroring the moves in USTs and swaps, was steeper from the week prior. The 5-year-and-in sector was minimally changed, but the longer tenors were 5 to 6 bps higher owing to both slightly higher benchmark rates and wider funding spreads. Please refer to the previous section for color on market dynamics and changes.
• On the UST term supply front, the upcoming week serves a reprieve from auctions. Note that UST auctions usually occur at 1pm and can occasionally spur volatility around that time. Please contact the Member Services Desk for further information on market dynamics, rate levels, or products.