Member Services Desk Weekly Market Update

This MSD Weekly Market Update reflects information for the week ending April 24, 2026.

Economist Views

THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR HIGHLIGHTS
Date Time	Event	Period	Survey	Prior
4/28/26 8:15	ADP Weekly Employment Change	11-Apr	--	54.750k
4/28/26 9:00	S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA	Feb	--	0.16%
4/28/26 10:00	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	Apr	89.80	91.80
4/29/26 7:00	MBA Mortgage Applications	24-Apr	--	7.90%
4/29/26 8:30	Housing Starts	Mar	1,400k	1,487k
4/29/26 8:30	Building Permits	Mar P	1,390k	1,386k
4/30/26 8:30	Personal Income	Mar	0.30%	-0.10%
4/30/26 8:30	Personal Spending	Mar	0.80%	0.50%
4/30/26 8:30	Initial Jobless Claims	25-Apr	--	214k
5/1/26 10:00	ISM Manufacturing	Apr	53.00	52.70

The extended now-with-no-end-date Mideast ceasefire has instilled a steadier backdrop to markets and limited rate changes, although the situation remains tenuous. Data released over the week was generally better-than-expected. Retail sales posted a M-o-M increase, although the figure is not adjusted for inflation, and Pending Home Sales flashed a hopeful M-o-M rise. Senate hearings on the prospective new Fed Chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, were held, but it is too early to evoke forecasts on the topic. The week ahead serves a busy slate of economic reports, although the highlight may be the April 29th FOMC outcome and the subsequent press conference. At this stage, the Fed is widely expected to remain on hold and note the ongoing uncertainty from the Mideast conflict and its potential impacts. The markets, meanwhile, remain in a tense yet hopeful pattern that the ceasefire will hold and limit further economic or market repercussions.

ADP Weekly Employment Change: This 4-week moving average of private payrolls has posted a string of improvements in recent weeks, and so the fresh reading will determine if the streak holds.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: The national and 10- and 20-City barometers for February will reveal if the price deceleration evident in the previous report has persisted.

Conference Boad Consumer Confidence: After ticking higher from 91 to 91.8 in March, the index is forecast to slide back to 89.8. The Present Situation and Expectations indices also will be released.

Mortgage Applications: The past week’s headline weekly index posted an encouraging 7.9% gain, as both purchases and refinancings were boosted by the decline in rates from the more-elevated levels of late-March and early-April.

Housing Starts: The fresh data will reveal if starts can sustain the January’s better-than-expected, at a SAAR gain of 7.2% M-o-M, results.

Building Permits: Permits for March are forecast to register a mild rebound from that of January’s 4.7% SAAR decline.

Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims: Initial claims rose by 6K the past week, with a modest rise in the 4-week moving average. Overall, this dataset continues to portray a relatively stable yet non-dynamic labor market.

Personal Spending Report: The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) release of March data will reveal fresh monthly readings on income, spending and prices. Each is forecast to bounce higher from last month’s postings. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data will provide illumination on the strength and breadth of inflationary pressures; the core-PCE is forecast to post a 3.2% Y-o-Y gain which is clearly above the Fed’s 2% goal.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): The BEA will also release the first estimate of Q1 GDP on the 30th. The market consensus forecast is a 1.2% gain.

ISM Manufacturing: The headline survey is forecast to dip by .5 to 52.2. Readings on prices paid, new orders, and employment will also be released in the report.

Federal Reserve Bank Member Appearances:

• 4/18/2026-4/29/2026 Fed’s external communications blackout prior to April 29th FOMC meeting and announcement.

UPCOMING WEEK'S US TREASURY AUCTIONS
Bills	Offering Amount	Auction Date -- Settle Date
4-Week; 8-Week	$80bn; $75bn	4/30 -- 5/5
13-Week; 26-Week	$89bn; $77bn	4/27 -- 4/30
6-Week	$70bn	4/28 -- 4/30
Notes	Offering Amount	Auction Date -- Settle Date
2-Year; 5-Year	$69bn; $70bn	4/27 -- 4/30
7-Year	$44bn	4/28 -- 4/30
FRNs	Offering Amount	Auction Date -- Settle Date
2-Year	$30bn	4/28 -- 4/30

Key Market Trends

Source: Bloomberg. Top pane is yield (LHS, %); bottom pane is change (LHS, bps). As of late Thursday, the UST term curve was modestly changed from a week ago, with the 2-year higher by 5 bps and the rest of the 10-year-and-in sector up by a lesser degree. Yields remain below their recent highs of four weeks ago but are ~35 to 45 bps higher than the close of February which had marked the year-to-date lows. The market has traded sideways in the past two weeks, as it absorbs data and waits for the FOMC and further Mideast developments. The market’s end-2026 forward is ~3.59%, ~3 bps higher than a week ago and which equates to ~20% chance of one 25-bps rate cut for the rest of 2026. Since last week, a 100% chance of a 25-bps cut has been pushed out from Fall 2027 to now early-2028. Refer to the next chart for a view of the curve and further color.

Source: FHLBNY. As can be seen here and relative to the last FOMC meeting in March, the market has pared back prospects for interest rate cuts. Indeed, as of early Thursday afternoon, a full 25-bps cut is not priced into the curve until early-2028, although it should be noted that this pricing has “bounced around” day-to-day depending on market sentiment. Given relatively stable jobs and activity data, the urgency for a rate cut appears lacking. And the need for the Fed to remain in wait-and-see mode has only increased with the uncertain Mideast conflict and its potential impacts which we address in the following charts and color.

Source: Bloomberg. One of the obvious impacts of the Mideast conflict has been higher energy prices. But, as seen here, overall commodities prices have also staged a notable rise in the past few months. And the impacts have begun to seep into recent headline inflation data. While most of these commodities may initially impact the headline, or non-core measures which strip out food & energy components, the risk looms that the elevated prices permeate other items and components and act as an inflation undercurrent. And this risk is in addition to tariff-induced price pressures which have already and slowly begun to seep into prices. Given these risks, it is unsurprising that the Fed is likely to maintain its wait-and-see posture.

Source: Bloomberg. The rise in inflation concerns are evident in market rates; note that, despite a retreat in recent weeks, the 5-year UST yield trades ~40 bps higher than its year-to-date low at the end of February. As seen here, inflation swaps have risen since wintertime. Most pronounced is the 1-year which has increased over 100 bps year-to-date. The longer tenors have risen too but to a lesser degree. This curve behavior comports with the narrative that inflationary impacts will “level off” after some near-term pressure. Indeed, at an FHLB-NY event last week, NY Fed President John Williams cited this general narrative in his overview of economic conditions. Nonetheless, with the FOMC meeting in the near-term and given the Fed’s stated goal of 2% inflation, these market dynamics are likely yet another reason for the Fed’s wait-and-see stance.

 

FHLBNY Advance Rates Observations

Front-End Rates

• As of Thursday afternoon and relative to last week, the shortest tenors were unchanged and most tenors 1-month-and-out were lower by a bp. Overall, financing markets remain calmer than those of late-2025, assisted by the moderation in net T-bill supply over the past two months. Fed purchases of T-bills via MBS portfolio principal reinvestments and its Reserve Management Purchases program have also added stability to financing markets and helped to blunt any severe reactions to any net positive UST and T-bill issuance and/or month and quarter-end periods. Last week’s tax date, as expected, exerted upward pressure, as SOFR trended higher from 3.57% on April 9th to 3.72% on the 15th. However, as we had forecast in the past two weeks’ editions, it has quickly subsided to 3.64%. In the days ahead, GSE cash will exit money markets to make MBS coupon payments on or near the 25th of the month. While this could exert some mild upward pressure on financing rates, Money Market AUM is anticipated to stage its usual post-tax date rebuild and thereby help conditions. In a bigger picture context, meanwhile, also supporting liquidity conditions has been large bank balance sheet expansion in expectation of regulatory changes and softer capital requirements.
• The week ahead is benign, in terms of overall UST and T-bill net settlements which, when positive, extract cash from the markets and thereby exert upward pressure on short-end rates. Indeed, net issuance will be overall negative in the upcoming week.

Term Rates

• The longer-term curve, as of Thursday afternoon and generally mirroring the moves in USTs and swaps, was modestly changed and flatter from a week prior. The 2- and 5-year rose by 5 and 2 bps, respectively. The 10-year dipped by a bp, aided by improved issuance spread levels. Please refer to the previous section for color on market dynamics and changes.
• On the UST term supply front, the upcoming week serves a slate of 2/5/7-year auctions, each of which will settle on the 30th. Note that UST auctions usually occur at 1pm and can occasionally spur volatility around that time. Please contact the Member Services Desk for further information on market dynamics, rate levels, or products.