Member Services Desk Weekly Market Update

This MSD Weekly Market Update reflects information for the week ending April 17, 2026.

Economist Views

THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR HIGHLIGHTS
Date Time	Event	Period	Survey	Prior
4/21/26 8:15	ADP Weekly Employment Change	4-Apr	--	39.250k
4/21/26 8:30	Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity	Apr	--	-23.90
4/21/26 8:30	Retail Sales Advance MoM	Mar	1.20%	0.60%
4/21/26 10:00	Pending Home Sales MoM	Mar	--	1.80%
4/21/26 10:00	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	Mar	--	-0.60%
4/22/26 7:00	MBA Mortgage Applications	17-Apr	--	1.80%
4/23/26 8:30	Initial Jobless Claims	18-Apr	--	207k
4/23/26 8:30	Continuing Claims	11-Apr	--	1,818k
4/23/26 9:45	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI	Apr P	--	52.30
4/24/26 10:00	U. of Mich. Sentiment	Apr F	--	47.60

The past week was mostly dictated by Mideast war news, with the ongoing ceasefire instilling a steadier backdrop to markets. Data released over the week was of a second-tier nature and proved inconsequential, in terms of notable rates movements. The Mideast conflict and its impacts should continue to be the dominant driver of markets; for now, markets are in a hopeful pattern that the ceasefire will hold and limit further economic or market repercussions.

ADP Weekly Employment Change: This barometer of private payrolls, a 4-week moving average, has posted a string of improvements in recent weeks.

Retail Sales: The Census Bureau’s report for March is expected to modestly decelerate to a .2% M-o-M reading on the core ex-food & gas reading. Noteworthy will be if the Mideast conflict has begun to impact core spending behavior.

Pending Home Sales: This leading indicator of housing activity posted a 1.8% M-o-M annualized gain in February, and so the fresh release will reveal if sales were negatively impacted by the rise in rates during March.

Mortgage Applications: The past week’s headline index managed to post its first weekly gain, at a modest 1.8%, since the first week of March. Refinancings led the gain, as rates have retreated from the high point of late-March. Purchase applications dropped 1% on the week, meanwhile.

Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims: Initial claims fell by 6K the past week, with a relatively steady 4-week moving average. Overall, this dataset continues to portray a relatively stable yet non-dynamic labor market.

S&P Global Purchasing Managers Report: The monthly surveys for April will deliver updated snapshots of sentiment and activity on a composite basis and specifically for manufacturing and services.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: The final report for April will reveal if the results were indeed as poor as those signaled in last week’s preliminary report; the headline index fell to an all-time low of 47.6 in the preliminary reading, and inflation expectations rose from the prior month.

Federal Reserve Bank Member Appearances:

• 4/17/2026 11:30 San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks in moderated conversation at UC Berkeley.
• 4/17/2026 12:15 Richmond Fed President Barkin repeats economic outlook speech.
• 4/17/2026 14:00 Fed Governor Waller speaks on economic outlook at Auburn University event.
• 4/18/2026-4/30/2026 Fed’s external communications blackout prior to April 30th FOMC meeting.

UPCOMING WEEK'S US TREASURY AUCTIONS
Bills	Offering Amount	Auction Date -- Settle Date
4-Week; 8-Week	$80bn; $75bn	4/23 -- 4/28
13-Week; 26-Week	$89bn; $77bn	4/20 -- 4/23
6-Week	$70bn	4/21 -- 4/23
TIPs	Offering Amount	Auction Date -- Settle Date
5-Year	$26bn	4/23 -- 4/30
Bonds	Offering Amount	Auction Date -- Settle Date
19-Year 10-Month	$13bn	4/22 -- 4/30

Key Market Trends

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Bureau of Labor Statistics; ICE McDash; FRB Dallas. Consumers have been in dour spirits regarding prices and affordability. Indeed, the University of Michigan preliminary April headline Consumer Sentiment index fell to a record low last week. Affordability constraints have lingered in housing and homeownership and have spurred lower levels of activity. Home affordability has been impacted by the rise in rates since end-February that has caused a downshift in mortgage applications. A less-mentioned cost of homeownership is insurance; homeowners insurance is required to maintain a mortgage, and roughly 80% of U.S. homeowners carry it. In recent years, rising premiums have been driven higher by a confluence of overall higher prices, building and materials costs, reinsurance costs, and climate risks. As seen here in a recent Dallas Fed study, official and traditional inflation measures, namely CPI and PCE, only partially reflect these rising insurance costs. The study posits that ICE McDash data more accurately portrays the real dollar amounts paid by homeowners for insurance. And, as seen here, the costs are notably higher than the already-high increases of the traditional measures. It should be noted that increases varied across regions and states, but the overall trend higher was definitively national in scope. In most states, insurance costs grew at twice the pace of income, according to the study. The observations of this study amplify the importance of FHLB-NY’s housing and affordability programs and initiatives.

Sources: Bloomberg; National Association of Realtors (NAR); National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) - Wells Fargo. Affordability constraints continue to be evident in housing-related data, as seen here in data released this past week. At a 3.98mn M-o-M seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in March, the NAR’s existing home sales tally registered at its lowest level since last June. The higher rates of March, as well as lingering high home prices, certainly detracted from activity. The NAR, moreover, trimmed its 2026 existing home sales forecast to a 4% annual gain from the previous 14%. Sales in the Northeast slid to the lowest pace in NAR data since 1999. The NAHB Housing Market Index fell to a 7-month low in April. With values below 50 indicating sub-par conditions, the latest confidence-survey reading of 34 essentially resides in “poor” territory. The survey’s sales and prospective buyer traffic metrics all posted declines. Higher rates, elevated materials costs, and labor constraints all contributed to the downcast sentiment.

Sources: Bloomberg. Not all of the past week’s housing-related news was downbeat. The Mideast ceasefire has spurred retracements in rates and option implied volatility (“vol”) levels. As seen here, vol has retraced lower in the past two weeks. The 2-year into 10-year swaption has declined markedly, albeit not yet all the way back to its 4-year low of January. The decrease in vol, in turn, has spurred a decline in MBS spreads which, in tandem with lower UST yields, has sparked a decline in the MBS Current Coupon of over 30 bps in the past two weeks. While the Current Coupon is still ~35 bps higher than end-February, these dynamics helped to lower mortgage rates and spur a modest rebound in mortgage applications in the past week.

Sources: Bloomberg. Top pane is yield (LHS, %); bottom pane is change (LHS, bps). As of late Thursday, the UST term curve was mildly higher and steeper from the week prior. The 2-, 5-, and 10-year were up by 1, 2, and 4 bps, respectively. While yields have retraced from the recent highs of three weeks ago, they are still ~35 to 40 bps higher in the 2-to-5-year sector from end-February before the Mideast conflict. The market’s end-2026 forward is ~3.555%, about the same as a week ago and which equates to ~34% chance of one 25-bps rate cut for the rest of 2026. A 100% chance of a 25-bps cut is now priced by October 2027.

 

FHLBNY Advance Rates Observations

Front-End Rates

• As of Thursday afternoon and relative to last week, short tenors were unchanged to a bp higher, as spreads on our paper widened a tad. Given the past week’s tax date and anticipated outflows from Money Market Funds (MMF), the softening was of little surprise. Overall, financing markets remain calmer compared to late-2025, assisted by the recent moderation in net T-bill supply. Fed purchases of T-bills via MBS portfolio principal reinvestments and its Reserve Management Purchases program have also, overall, added stability to financing markets and helped to blunt any severe reactions to any net positive UST and T-bill issuance and/or month and quarter-end periods. And the impact of the tax date appears to be following suit, although SOFR rose from 3.57% on April 9th to 3.72% on the 15th. But SOFR is expected to subside from here, as GSE cash now makes its way into money markets prior to MBS coupon payments scheduled on or near the 25th of the month.
• The week ahead appears benign, in terms of overall UST and T-bill net settlements which, when positive, can take cash out of the markets and thereby exert upward pressure on short-end rates. Indeed, the net issuance will be negative, and this dynamic should help relieve the above-mentioned upward stress on SOFR in the past week.

Term Rates

• The longer-term curve, as of Thursday afternoon and generally mirroring the moves in USTs and swaps, was largely unchanged from last week, with most tenors up or down a single bp. Please refer to the previous section for color on market dynamics and changes.
• On the UST term supply front, the upcoming week serves a 5-year TIPS and a 20-year nominal auction which both settle on the 30th. Note that UST auctions usually occur at 1pm and can occasionally spur volatility around that time. Please contact the Member Services Desk for further information on market dynamics, rate levels, or products.