Member Services Desk Weekly Market Update

This MSD Weekly Market Update reflects information for the week ending March 6, 2026.

Economist Views

THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR HIGHLIGHTS
Date Time	Event	Period	Survey	Prior
3/10/26 10:00	Existing Home Sales	Feb	3.85m	3.91m
3/11/26 7:00	MBA Mortgage Applications	6-Mar	--	11.00%
3/11/26 8:30	CPI MoM	Feb	0.20%	0.20%
3/11/26 8:30	Core CPI MoM	Feb	0.20%	0.30%
3/12/26 8:30	Initial Jobless Claims	7-Mar	--	213k
3/12/26 8:30	Housing Starts	Jan	1,351k	1,404k
3/13/26 8:30	Personal Income	Jan	0.40%	0.30%
3/13/26 8:30	GDP Annualized QoQ	4Q S	1.40%	1.40%
3/13/26 10:00	U. of Mich. Sentiment	Mar P	57.00	56.60
3/13/26 10:00	JOLTS Job Openings	Jan	--	6,542k

Data released in the past week was overall slightly better/higher than expectations, but the market-impactful news of the week was clearly the eruption and ongoing Mideast conflagration. As of this writing, rates have notably rebounded from the multi-month lows of last week. We provide further context and color on the markets herein. In terms of the Fed policy, the market has pushed out the timeline of prospective rate cuts. The chance of a cut at this month’s FOMC is basically nil. After, as of a week ago, fully pricing in a 25-bps cut by mid-to-late summer, the market now prices for that outcome by September/October. 

Existing Home Sales: Sales in January dropped by 8.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.91mn, down from 4.27mn in December, marking the lowest level since September 2024. February is expected to register another decline, albeit milder, of 1.5% to 3.85mn.

Mortgage Applications: After a robust start to the year, driven largely by refinancings, applications have notably tapered off since. But some improvement may be in store, given the start of spring homebuying season. The past week’s headline index posted an 11% gain, following a 2.8% gain the week prior, thereby marking two consecutive weeks of gains. 

Consumer Price Index (CPI): Headline CPI for February is expected to post at .2% M-o-M, and 2.4% Y-o-Y, on both headline and core measures. Such a result would mark a slight .1% decline in core.    

Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims: Initial claims in the last week remained steady via a 1K weekly increase to 213K . The 4-week moving average dropped slightly to 215.75K. Continuing Claims increased by 35K to 1868K, thereby signaling that workers are not easily finding new positions. Overall, the data continues to portray a relatively steady yet non-dynamic labor market. 

Housing Starts & Building Permits: After a December 2025 annualized rate of 1.404mn, a 6.2% increase from November, January is expected to register a 3.8% decline. Preliminary data on permits will also be released for January.

Personal Income & Spending Report: The January report is expected to post a slight uptick in income and downtick in spending. The Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index data will be closely watched for its signal on inflation pressures, with expected core-PCE prints of .4% M-o-M and 3% Y-o-Y. Such a result would clearly be above the Fed’s desired 2% goal. 

Gross Domestic Product: The second estimate for Q4 2025 is expected to reveal a 1.4% Q-o-Q annualized rate.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: The preliminary March report is forecast to post at 57 on the headline index, or slightly above last month’s reading. The report’s components on inflation expectations and overall conditions will also be assessed by economists.

Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey: The January report from the BLS will provide fresh data on openings, hires, and separations. The December data revealed a decline in job openings in business services, retail trade, and finance. Moreover, the openings-to-unemployed ratio rests near or just below 1, signaling a relatively balanced yet non-dynamic market.  

Federal Reserve Bank Member Appearances:

• 3/07/2026 00:00 Fed’s external communications blackout begins and lasts through the March 18th FOMC decision.

UPCOMING WEEK'S US TREASURY AUCTIONS
Bills	Offering Amount	Auction Date -- Settle Date
4-Week; 8-Week	105bn; 95bn	3/12 -- 3/17
13-Week; 26-Week	89bn; 77bn	3/9 -- 3/12
6-Week	90bn	3/10 -- 3/12
Notes	Offering Amount	Auction Date -- Settle Date
3-Year	58 bn	3/10 -- 3/16
9-Year 11-Month	39 bn	3/11 -- 3/16
Bonds	Offering Amount	Auction Date -- Settle Date
29-Year 11-Month	22 bn	3/12 -- 3/16

Key Market Trends

Sources: Redfin; Bloomberg. Here can be seen the impact of periods of dramatically low rates over the past fifteen years or so. Typical homeowners are remaining in their homes longer. At a current median tenure (RHS, years) of twelve years, the stay is nearly double that of two decades ago. Holding a far-below-market-rate mortgage provides a lock-in effect to housing turnover. Higher costs of moving and new borrowing deter some potential movers, including empty-nester types that would ordinarily downsize. Meanwhile, the current less-than-dynamic labor market has led to decreased turnover and related moving. The flexible-work policies and low rates of the post-Covid pandemic helped to lower the tenure, but the duration of stay has crept back up since.

Source: Bloomberg. Top pane is yield (LHS, %); bottom pane is change (LHS, bps). As of late Thursday, the UST term curve was higher from the week prior, with the 2- to 7-year sector leading the move via a 15 to 16 bps increase in yields. The Mideast conflict and slightly stronger-than-expected data precipitated the move, as covered elsewhere herein. Option volatility, as well as  mortgage and corporate bond spreads, also rose on the week. As of Thursday afternoon, the market prices the chance of a 25-bps Fed ease for the March 18th FOMC at a negligible 2%. The market’s end-2026 forward is ~3.25%, 17 bps higher than a week ago and which equates to ~1.55 25-bps rate cuts for the rest of 2026. Note that conditions may change after the release of the employment situation report to be released just prior to this Weekly hitting inboxes.

Source: Bloomberg. At this stage, the main impacts of the Mideast conflict have been witnessed in commodity prices and rates. Unsurprisingly, oil prices have led the upward move in commodities. At the time of this writing, oil traded at $80.6/barrel (note that this level is higher than that of the chart, since the price continued rising after chart production!), a notable spike from ~$65/barrel a week ago. Perhaps surprising was the lack of a flight-to-quality move in USTs in response to the conflict. But there is historical precedence for yields to increase along with oil price spikes. Essentially, the potential of inflation pressures from higher oil and commodity prices, along with supply chain constraints, has led the market to reprice, at least for now, Fed expectations and push yields and risk premium higher. As seen here, the 5-year swap rate has rebounded by over 20 bps from its multi-month low of last week.        

Sources: Bloomberg; Crane Data LLC. While the Mideast conflict failed to spur UST demand, it appeared to contribute to a healthy increase in Money Market Fund (MMF) AUM. Indeed, AUM (through March 3rd) now stands at a record $8.27trn, with ~$18.5bn entering on Tuesday alone in a likely move to a safe and liquid investment space. For 2026, MMF YTD inflows are at $162bn. Reinvestment of interest payments helps to organically support AUM, particularly in a still-inverted front-end of the yield curve and when MMF yields compare favorably to bank deposits. Additionally, there is a seasonal tendency for AUM to grow in and around the current timeframe, as tax refunds are parked in MMFs, or funds that are earmarked for April tax payments are likewise parked in MMFs. Also of note is that S&P 500 non-financial companies now hold liquidity investment portfolios with cash and cash equivalents of a record high ~$1.38trn. Given that MMFs invest in T-bills and FHLB paper, the growth in their AUM can impact short-end markets and our advance levels.  

 

FHLBNY Advance Rates Observations

Front-End Rates

• As of midday Thursday, short tenors were 3 to 4 bps higher from the week prior, as market rates moved upwards, and the market pushed out the timeline of prospective Fed rate cuts. Also, the Mideast conflict has impacted market credit spreads, with our paper widening to a slight degree. Meanwhile, net T-bill supply was positive, with the past week experiencing multiple days of net positive Bills/UST settlements. The large UST settlement on Monday spurred a rise in SOFR and in our Overnight rate. But the impact was short-lived, as Fed purchases of T-bills via MBS portfolio principal reinvestments and its Reserve Management Purchases program have, overall, added stability to financing markets and helped to blunt any severe impacts from the higher UST and T-bill issuance. Money Market Fund AUM, meanwhile, remains at high levels and has absorbed short-end paper and repo demand and thereby assisted as a stabilizer.             
• Net T-bill issuance is approaching an inflection point in that net issuance to private (ex-Fed) investors is anticipated to moderate and then turn negative in April, as Treasury prepares for tax receipt season. This dynamic should improve T-bill and our issuance levels. Our advance rates, in turn, will benefit, all else equal. Please call the desk to obtain color on market conditions.    

Term Rates

• The longer-term curve, as of Thursday afternoon and generally mirroring the moves in USTs and swaps, was higher from a week ago, with most tenors rising by 12 to 14 bps. The 5-year rose by 14 bps. Please refer to the previous section for color on market dynamics and changes. The jobs report will likely have the highest probability of moving markets in the week ahead.
• On the UST term supply front, the upcoming week serves a slate of 3/10/30-year auctions which will all settle on the 16th. Note that UST auctions usually occur at 1pm and can occasionally spur volatility around that time. Please contact the Member Services Desk for further information on market dynamics, rate levels, or products.