Member Services Desk Weekly Market Update

We are pleased to announce the launch of our Member Services Desk (MSD) Weekly Market Update. In response to member feedback and in an effort to provide our membership with valuable insight to help further your business goals, the MSD Weekly Market Update is designed to provide insight into current market trends and news and will be released every Friday.

If you would like to receive the MSD Weekly Market Update in .pdf format (includes FHLBNY rate charts) or to discuss this content further, please email the MSD Team.

Recent Weekly Market Updates

08/22/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending August 22, 2025

The past week’s “second-tier” data shed little new light on the path of Fed policy, and markets moved modestly as a result. Housing-related data generally continued to portray a sector bedeviled by affordability, costs, labor, and supply issues. Housing starts and existing home sales both rebounded a touch, but building permits, a more forward-looking barometer, continued to decline. The July FOMC Minutes, meanwhile, revealed that most members considered inflation to currently be the most pressing concern of the Fed’s dual inflation/employment mandate. The Minutes also noted that it was “important to ensure that longer-term inflation expectations remained well-anchored”. Note, however, that the last FOMC meeting concluded just two days prior to the August 1st weaker-than-expected jobs report.

08/15/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending August 15, 2025

The past week’s economic data was generally a “mixed bag” of positives and negatives. While the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was widely considered tame enough to warrant a September Fed rate cut, the report contained numerous concerning elements. Among the more prominent concerns was the core reading’s 3.1% year-on-year gain, which is well above the Fed’s desired 2% target. Meanwhile, the surprising month-on-month .4% gain in services and .5% gain in the core ex-shelter reading have also spurred concern about brewing inflationary forces. This past spring’s inventory buildup has helped to somewhat contain tariff-induced price pressures, at least for the near-term, but pressures are still evident. The CPI report can be “sliced and diced” in numerous ways, but the takeaway is that inflation is not yet where the Fed wants it, and so prospects for a rate cut appear to rest highly on softer data from the jobs and growth front. Moreover, and seemingly validating the Fed’s wait-and-see posture, the Thursday morning release of a .9% July rise in the Producer Price Index (PPI) marked the largest increase in wholesale prices in three years. Note that there are both employment and inflation reports to come in September before the next FOMC meeting on September 17th.

08/08/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending August 8, 2025

The past week’s economic data did not reveal any surprises except a slight uptick in the Continuing Jobless Claims figure (increase of 38k from the prior week). In the week ahead, the CPI report will be the main attraction and hold the most potential to move markets. Given the August 1st weaker-than-expected employment report for July, a lower CPI reading could ease rate-cut hesitancy for more FOMC members. A strong CPI reading, however, will add to the Fed’s challenge of managing policy in a time of increasing stagflation signs.

08/01/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending August 1, 2025

Following perhaps the busiest, data and events-wise, week of the year, markets will face a lighter week ahead. The past week’s FOMC outcome, despite containing two dissents (Governors Waller and Bowman, as covered and forewarned in last week’s edition), was generally considered mildly hawkish by the markets. On closer analysis, the dissenters appear to be outliers within the FOMC. And neither the statement nor Powell hinted at a rate cut in September. In a nutshell, Fed policy remains in wait-and-see mode; see our charts for further color. The past week’s data was generally consistent with moderately stable economic conditions. Housing sales data continued its recent trend of weak readings. The upcoming week contains mostly second-tier data but will nonetheless provide further guidance on economic trends.

07/25/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending July 25, 2025

Following a week of second-tier data, the upcoming week will serve a blizzard of reports as well as the Federal Market Open Committee (FOMC) meeting. The FOMC outcome is slated for Wednesday afternoon. Given that recent economic data has portrayed general resilience and overall financial condition metrics are not tight, the Fed is expected to remain in “wait-and-see” mode, thereby leaving the fed funds range at 4.25 to 4.50%. Recent inflation readings, while looking relatively benign on the surface, have shown accelerating upward price pressures in certain areas...

07/18/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending July 18, 2025

Following a busy week of economic data, the markets will confront a lighter slate of mostly second-tier reports in the upcoming week. Naturally, the market will be on guard for any developments on the status of Federal Reserve and FOMC Chairman Powell. The past week’s data, in general, portrayed economic conditions to be relatively stable and resilient. The inflation report revealed that trends are still above the Fed’s target. Jobless claims numbers were steady from the week prior, and retail sales bounced back higher after two months of declines. Overall, given the backdrop, a “wait and see” approach from the Fed appears to be the near-term course. Indeed, the market now prices a virtually 0% chance of a cut at the upcoming July 30th FOMC meeting, and September has been pared back to ~50% of a 25-bps cut. The Fed is now in communications blackout mode through July 31st.

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