Member Services Desk Weekly Market Update

We are pleased to announce the launch of our Member Services Desk (MSD) Weekly Market Update. In response to member feedback and in an effort to provide our membership with valuable insight to help further your business goals, the MSD Weekly Market Update is designed to provide insight into current market trends and news and will be released every Friday.

If you would like to receive the MSD Weekly Market Update in .pdf format (includes FHLBNY rate charts) or to discuss this content further, please email the MSD Team.

Recent Weekly Market Updates

10/03/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending October 3, 2025

The main event of the past week has been the still-ongoing, as of this writing, federal government shutdown. All in all, the markets thus far have remained calm in response to it and await further news. There could certainly be negative economic impacts in the short-term; in past episodes, the negative impacts were reversed in subsequent quarters once workers returned and back paychecks were received and spent. From the Fed’s perspective, the shutdown comes at an inopportune juncture, given that the October 29th FOMC is “live”, and so the Fed ideally would need fresh data to determine its rate policy. This week’s initial claims and employment situation reports have been delayed due to the shutdown. Other reports released during the week portrayed a softening labor market and a continued cool manufacturing sector.

09/26/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending September 26, 2025

Data over the past week was generally mixed but portrayed an underlying economic resilience. The final estimate for Q2 GDP, for instance, was a stronger-than-expected 3.8%. While this number can be distorted by trade and inventory dynamics, it nonetheless reflects the continued growth led by rising consumer spending. The New Home Sales figure for August was notably stronger than expected, while Existing Home Sales declined from the month prior but to a lesser degree than predicted. On the employment front, jobless claims moderated from prior weeks’ levels. Inflation measures remain elevated to the Fed’s goal, and Friday’s (just prior to this Update’s release) monthly Personal Consumption expenditure data will shed important light on the recent trend.

09/19/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending September 19, 2025

The main event of the past week was the FOMC meeting and its, as expected, rate cut of 25 bps. The Fed’s decision clearly rested on labor market dynamics, as Chairman Powell declared in his press conference that “risks to the labor market were the focus of today’s decision”. Please refer herein for further details on the FOMC outcome. Economic data released this past week was mixed, with manufacturing and housing-related data on the weak side but retail sales stronger than expected. The retail sales figures may have been artificially boosted to a degree by underlying inflation pressures, but the data reflected a consumer sector that, at least in aggregate, remains sturdy.

09/12/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending September 12, 2025

Last week, we noted that the employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate appeared to currently hold a bit more sway within the Fed. Indeed, Fed Chair Powell noted that “downside risks to employment are rising” in his Jackson Hole Symposium address three weeks ago. Given this context, and inflation barometers still above the Fed’s 2% target, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut at the September 17th FOMC rested heavily on employment-related indicators. And the data released in the past week has essentially cemented a 25-bps Fed rate cut. In fact, the market currently prices a very slight chance of a 50-bps ease.

09/05/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending September 5, 2025

With the outcome of the next FOMC meeting on the 17th of this month, the upcoming week will provide a “last look” of sorts at inflation indicators, as both the Producer and Consumer Price Indices (PPI and CPI) will be released. Barring any major upside surprise, the market is likely to continue to strongly expect a 25-bps cut from the Fed. Indeed, the employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate appears to currently hold a bit more sway within the Fed. During his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium a few weeks ago, Fed Chair Powell noted that “downside risks to employment are rising”. Given this statement, and inflation barometers still above the Fed’s 2% target, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut at this month’s FOMC rests heavily on employment-related indicators. The labor market-related data released this past week mostly portrayed a cooling environment. In this regard, the employment situation report to be released on Friday morning just before this publication hits inboxes will be a key data point to either solidify a Fed rate cut at the upcoming meeting or place some doubt on it. The market consensus calls for +75K on payrolls and a 4.3% unemployment rate. Please contact the Member Services Desk for any updates on market dynamics or rate levels.

08/22/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending August 22, 2025

The past week’s “second-tier” data shed little new light on the path of Fed policy, and markets moved modestly as a result. Housing-related data generally continued to portray a sector bedeviled by affordability, costs, labor, and supply issues. Housing starts and existing home sales both rebounded a touch, but building permits, a more forward-looking barometer, continued to decline. The July FOMC Minutes, meanwhile, revealed that most members considered inflation to currently be the most pressing concern of the Fed’s dual inflation/employment mandate. The Minutes also noted that it was “important to ensure that longer-term inflation expectations remained well-anchored”. Note, however, that the last FOMC meeting concluded just two days prior to the August 1st weaker-than-expected jobs report.

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