Member Services Desk Weekly Market Update

The Member Services Desk (MSD) Weekly Market Update was developed in response to member feedback and strives to deliver timely, relevant insights that support member business objectives. Each Friday, the update provides an overview of current market trends and key developments.

If you would like to receive the MSD Weekly Market Update in .pdf format (includes FHLBNY rate charts) or to discuss this content further, please email the MSD Team.

Recent Weekly Market Updates

12/05/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending December 05, 2025

The highlight of the upcoming week will be the December 10th FOMC meeting. While the probability of a 25-bps Fed cut fell to ~30% at one juncture in the last week of November, it subsequently rebounded higher and now hovers ~90%. In public comments, various Fed members had expressed concern about inflationary pressures, but others subsequently expressed firm comfort with another cut. Economic data has been overall mixed but appears to have revealed enough of a weak tone for another “risk management” rate ease. With the government shutdown over, some delayed data has been released, however, much of it has been stale and many reports are still to be scheduled/released. This situation makes economic assessments and the Fed’s decision more difficult, and the ongoing tug-of-war between employment and inflation forces should spur lively debate within the Fed and likely some dissents on the official outcome. Note that a fresh Summary of Economic Projections, aka “dot plot”, will be released along with the rate decision and statement.

11/21/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending November 21, 2025

The eagerly anticipated September employment situation report, per details in our charts section, did not cement another cut or a pause at the December 10th FOMC. The tug-of-war between employment and inflation forces should persist, and Fed member viewpoints on conditions should make for lively debate within the Fed. In the past week, multiple Fed members expressed concern about inflation. In reaction, the market has downgraded the chances of another imminent cut. Additionally, the October FOMC Minutes released this past week revealed increasing mentions of inflation concerns, despite the 25-bps cut that was delivered. The upcoming week contains a slew of reports crammed into a holiday-shortened week. Some of the backlog of federal government-issued data is still to be scheduled, and more announcements are expected in the week ahead.

11/14/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending November 14, 2025

The past week was bereft of influential economic data. However, given the government shutdown resolution, a bevy of data should hit the calendar in the weeks ahead. Scheduling is still in a “TBA” state as of this writing. Recent private data reports have generally reflected a softening labor market and thereby kept the odds of another 25-bps Fed ease in December near the “50-50” pricing level, despite inflation-related data and sentiment remaining above the Fed’s 2% target. Essentially, a tug-of-war persists between employment and inflation forces, and these conditions should make for lively debate within the Fed regarding policy. The week ahead offers a slew of data, but much of it may still be delayed. Meanwhile, the tariff policy case before the Supreme Court will remain a topic to monitor, although potential market impacts are a bit murky at this stage.

11/07/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending November 7, 2025

The past week would normally have provided a slew of influential data, including the monthly jobs report, but much of it was again on pause because of the government shutdown. The private data released in the past week generally posted slightly better-than-expectations results. The ISM manufacturing report was a bit below expectations and lower from last month, while the ISM Services report was better than expectations and higher from a month ago. Perhaps this dichotomy is partially a result of differing tariff impacts on sectors such as good vs. services. The services report also reflected higher prices being paid. The ADP jobs report, meanwhile, staged a modest rebound. The week ahead will be interrupted by a bond market holiday on Tuesday, and many data points will be delayed absent a shutdown resolution. Meanwhile, the tariff policy case now in front of the Supreme Court will be a topic to monitor, although potential market impacts are a bit murky at this stage.

10/31/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending October 31, 2025

The highlight of the past week was Wednesday’s FOMC decision. While the Fed produced the market’s baked-in-the-cake 25-bps rate cut, there was division of opinion within the Fed. Unsurprisingly, the recently-appointed Governor Miran voted for a 50-bp cut. Surprisingly, however, Kansas City Fed President Schmid voted for no rate change. In the post-meeting press conference, Chairman Powell declared that “a further reduction in the policy rate is not a foregone conclusion, far from it”. The market, in turn, recalibrated its forward pricing, and yields staged a mini-surge. The week ahead would normally offer a slew of influential data, including the monthly jobs report, but much of it is again subject to delay, due to the government shutdown.

10/24/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending October 24, 2025

With the ongoing federal government shutdown, the economic data flow remains both lighter and more second-tier in nature, and the sparse data has generally led to both lower market volumes and volatility. A Philadelphia Fed-region services industry report was decidedly weak, but was offset by a somewhat improved Existing Home Sales report that posted the biggest gain since February. In some ways, the rates market marked time this past week until the eagerly-awaited Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was released just before this Weekly Update goes to press. This CPI report was a special release, as it was needed to ensure that the Social Security Administration could meet its deadline for calculating cost-of-living adjustments. The report will likely be dissected for accuracy, and, unless well-above expectations, is not expected to dissuade the Fed from a likely rate cut at the upcoming week’s FOMC meeting. The upcoming week offers a plethora of diverse data, although many of the reports are likely to be delayed.

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The content provided in these disclosures is presented as a courtesy to be used only for informational purposes and is not represented to be error free. The FHLBNY makes no representations or warranties of any kind with respect to the content contained herein, such representations and warranties being expressly disclaimed. The FHLBNY is not a financial or investment advisor.

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