Member Services Desk Weekly Market Update

We are pleased to announce the launch of our Member Services Desk (MSD) Weekly Market Update. In response to member feedback and in an effort to provide our membership with valuable insight to help further your business goals, the MSD Weekly Market Update is designed to provide insight into current market trends and news and will be released every Friday.

If you would like to receive the MSD Weekly Market Update in .pdf format (includes FHLBNY rate charts) or to discuss this content further, please email the MSD Team.

Recent Weekly Market Updates

09/12/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending September 12, 2025

Last week, we noted that the employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate appeared to currently hold a bit more sway within the Fed. Indeed, Fed Chair Powell noted that “downside risks to employment are rising” in his Jackson Hole Symposium address three weeks ago. Given this context, and inflation barometers still above the Fed’s 2% target, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut at the September 17th FOMC rested heavily on employment-related indicators. And the data released in the past week has essentially cemented a 25-bps Fed rate cut. In fact, the market currently prices a very slight chance of a 50-bps ease.

09/05/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending September 5, 2025

With the outcome of the next FOMC meeting on the 17th of this month, the upcoming week will provide a “last look” of sorts at inflation indicators, as both the Producer and Consumer Price Indices (PPI and CPI) will be released. Barring any major upside surprise, the market is likely to continue to strongly expect a 25-bps cut from the Fed. Indeed, the employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate appears to currently hold a bit more sway within the Fed. During his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium a few weeks ago, Fed Chair Powell noted that “downside risks to employment are rising”. Given this statement, and inflation barometers still above the Fed’s 2% target, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut at this month’s FOMC rests heavily on employment-related indicators. The labor market-related data released this past week mostly portrayed a cooling environment. In this regard, the employment situation report to be released on Friday morning just before this publication hits inboxes will be a key data point to either solidify a Fed rate cut at the upcoming meeting or place some doubt on it. The market consensus calls for +75K on payrolls and a 4.3% unemployment rate. Please contact the Member Services Desk for any updates on market dynamics or rate levels.

08/22/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending August 22, 2025

The past week’s “second-tier” data shed little new light on the path of Fed policy, and markets moved modestly as a result. Housing-related data generally continued to portray a sector bedeviled by affordability, costs, labor, and supply issues. Housing starts and existing home sales both rebounded a touch, but building permits, a more forward-looking barometer, continued to decline. The July FOMC Minutes, meanwhile, revealed that most members considered inflation to currently be the most pressing concern of the Fed’s dual inflation/employment mandate. The Minutes also noted that it was “important to ensure that longer-term inflation expectations remained well-anchored”. Note, however, that the last FOMC meeting concluded just two days prior to the August 1st weaker-than-expected jobs report.

08/15/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending August 15, 2025

The past week’s economic data was generally a “mixed bag” of positives and negatives. While the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was widely considered tame enough to warrant a September Fed rate cut, the report contained numerous concerning elements. Among the more prominent concerns was the core reading’s 3.1% year-on-year gain, which is well above the Fed’s desired 2% target. Meanwhile, the surprising month-on-month .4% gain in services and .5% gain in the core ex-shelter reading have also spurred concern about brewing inflationary forces. This past spring’s inventory buildup has helped to somewhat contain tariff-induced price pressures, at least for the near-term, but pressures are still evident. The CPI report can be “sliced and diced” in numerous ways, but the takeaway is that inflation is not yet where the Fed wants it, and so prospects for a rate cut appear to rest highly on softer data from the jobs and growth front. Moreover, and seemingly validating the Fed’s wait-and-see posture, the Thursday morning release of a .9% July rise in the Producer Price Index (PPI) marked the largest increase in wholesale prices in three years. Note that there are both employment and inflation reports to come in September before the next FOMC meeting on September 17th.

08/08/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending August 8, 2025

The past week’s economic data did not reveal any surprises except a slight uptick in the Continuing Jobless Claims figure (increase of 38k from the prior week). In the week ahead, the CPI report will be the main attraction and hold the most potential to move markets. Given the August 1st weaker-than-expected employment report for July, a lower CPI reading could ease rate-cut hesitancy for more FOMC members. A strong CPI reading, however, will add to the Fed’s challenge of managing policy in a time of increasing stagflation signs.

08/01/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending August 1, 2025

Following perhaps the busiest, data and events-wise, week of the year, markets will face a lighter week ahead. The past week’s FOMC outcome, despite containing two dissents (Governors Waller and Bowman, as covered and forewarned in last week’s edition), was generally considered mildly hawkish by the markets. On closer analysis, the dissenters appear to be outliers within the FOMC. And neither the statement nor Powell hinted at a rate cut in September. In a nutshell, Fed policy remains in wait-and-see mode; see our charts for further color. The past week’s data was generally consistent with moderately stable economic conditions. Housing sales data continued its recent trend of weak readings. The upcoming week contains mostly second-tier data but will nonetheless provide further guidance on economic trends.

Archives

Disclaimer: Notwithstanding any language to the contrary, nothing contained in these disclosures is intended to constitute an offer, inducement, promise, or contract of any kind. Any product descriptions and pricing may be subject to change without notice.

The content provided in these disclosures is presented as a courtesy to be used only for informational purposes and is not represented to be error free. The FHLBNY makes no representations or warranties of any kind with respect to the content contained herein, such representations and warranties being expressly disclaimed. The FHLBNY is not a financial or investment advisor.

Moreover, the FHLBNY does not represent or warrant that the content of these disclosures is accurate, complete or current for any specific or particular purpose or application. It is not intended to provide nor should anyone consider that it provides legal, accounting, tax or other advice. Such advice should only be rendered in reference to the particular facts and circumstances appropriate to each situation. The FHLBNY encourages you to contact appropriate professional(s) and consultant(s) to assess your specific needs and circumstances and to render such advice accordingly. In addition, the FHLBNY is not endorsing or recommending the use of the means or methods contained in or through these disclosures for any special or particular purpose.

It is solely your responsibility to evaluate the risks or merits of any funding or investment strategy. In no event will FHLBNY or any of its officers, directors or employees be liable for any damages — whether direct, indirect, special, general, consequential, for alleged lost profits, or otherwise – that might result from any use of or reliance on these materials.

Search

Quick Links