Member Services Desk Weekly Market Update

We are pleased to announce the launch of our Member Services Desk (MSD) Weekly Market Update. In response to member feedback and in an effort to provide our membership with valuable insight to help further your business goals, the MSD Weekly Market Update is designed to provide insight into current market trends and news and will be released every Friday.

If you would like to receive the MSD Weekly Market Update in .pdf format (includes FHLBNY rate charts) or to discuss this content further, please email the MSD Team.

Recent Weekly Market Updates

10/17/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending October 17, 2025

With the ongoing federal government shutdown, the economic data flow has been both lighter and more second-tier in nature. The lack of data has generally led to both lower market volumes and volatility. The yield curve still prices a near-certain 25-bps cut by the Fed on October 29th, as recent private reports on labor market-related data has portrayed a decidedly less dynamic state, and the shutdown may impair near-term economic conditions. Given that the October 29th FOMC decision is “live”, the Fed would clearly desire fresh data. On that score, the upcoming week’s special release of the Consumer Price Index report for September will provide some needed insight on current conditions.

10/10/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending October 10, 2025

The past week was relatively light on economic data, and the ongoing federal government shutdown has prevented multiple reports from being released. The markets thus far have remained calm in response to the shutdown and await further news on a resolution. The lack of data has led to lower volumes and low volatility. The yield curve still prices a near-certain 25-bps cut by the Fed on October 29th, as labor market-related data has portrayed a decidedly less dynamic state, plus the shutdown may impair near-term economic conditions. From the Fed’s perspective, the shutdown comes at an inopportune time, given that the October 29th FOMC decision is “live”, and so the Fed would ideally want fresh data. The past week’s jobless claims were again unreleased, thereby leaving only private tier-2 reports in the past two weeks, which mostly corresponded with a less fluid jobs market and may improve the odds of another rate cut this month.

10/03/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending October 3, 2025

The main event of the past week has been the still-ongoing, as of this writing, federal government shutdown. All in all, the markets thus far have remained calm in response to it and await further news. There could certainly be negative economic impacts in the short-term; in past episodes, the negative impacts were reversed in subsequent quarters once workers returned and back paychecks were received and spent. From the Fed’s perspective, the shutdown comes at an inopportune juncture, given that the October 29th FOMC is “live”, and so the Fed ideally would need fresh data to determine its rate policy. This week’s initial claims and employment situation reports have been delayed due to the shutdown. Other reports released during the week portrayed a softening labor market and a continued cool manufacturing sector.

09/26/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending September 26, 2025

Data over the past week was generally mixed but portrayed an underlying economic resilience. The final estimate for Q2 GDP, for instance, was a stronger-than-expected 3.8%. While this number can be distorted by trade and inventory dynamics, it nonetheless reflects the continued growth led by rising consumer spending. The New Home Sales figure for August was notably stronger than expected, while Existing Home Sales declined from the month prior but to a lesser degree than predicted. On the employment front, jobless claims moderated from prior weeks’ levels. Inflation measures remain elevated to the Fed’s goal, and Friday’s (just prior to this Update’s release) monthly Personal Consumption expenditure data will shed important light on the recent trend.

09/19/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending September 19, 2025

The main event of the past week was the FOMC meeting and its, as expected, rate cut of 25 bps. The Fed’s decision clearly rested on labor market dynamics, as Chairman Powell declared in his press conference that “risks to the labor market were the focus of today’s decision”. Please refer herein for further details on the FOMC outcome. Economic data released this past week was mixed, with manufacturing and housing-related data on the weak side but retail sales stronger than expected. The retail sales figures may have been artificially boosted to a degree by underlying inflation pressures, but the data reflected a consumer sector that, at least in aggregate, remains sturdy.

09/12/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending September 12, 2025

Last week, we noted that the employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate appeared to currently hold a bit more sway within the Fed. Indeed, Fed Chair Powell noted that “downside risks to employment are rising” in his Jackson Hole Symposium address three weeks ago. Given this context, and inflation barometers still above the Fed’s 2% target, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut at the September 17th FOMC rested heavily on employment-related indicators. And the data released in the past week has essentially cemented a 25-bps Fed rate cut. In fact, the market currently prices a very slight chance of a 50-bps ease.

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