Member Services Desk Weekly Market Update

The Member Services Desk (MSD) Weekly Market Update was developed in response to member feedback and strives to deliver timely, relevant insights that support member business objectives. Each Friday, the update provides an overview of current market trends and key developments.

If you would like to receive the MSD Weekly Market Update in .pdf format (includes FHLBNY rate charts) or to discuss this content further, please email the MSD Team.

Recent Weekly Market Updates

01/16/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending January 16, 2026

The past week offered a series of inflation-related releases that were largely uneventful but revealed metrics that were still above the Fed’s 2% target. Other data, meanwhile, leaned towards being slightly better than expected. Retail sales, for instance, registered at resilient levels. Given the past week’s data and last Friday’s “okay” employment situation report, the dye seems cast for a Fed pause on rates at the January 28th FOMC. The upcoming holiday-shortened week serves a steady set of generally second-tier economic data which is unlikely to alter this status. Another potential highlight could be a Supreme Court decision on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs. If declared illegal, market strategists cite the potential for a rise in long-term yields and a curve steepening move, as tariff reimbursements could act as a stimulus. But reaction may be muted, since many tariffs could potentially be reimposed via alternative authorities.

01/09/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending January 9, 2026

The past week offered a series of labor market releases which generally reflected a less dynamic yet relatively stable jobs market. The end-of-week employment situation report, released after our update went to press, will cap off the data deluge and be the likely highlight. Another potential end-of-week highlight could be a Supreme Court decision on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs. If declared illegal, market strategists cite the potential for a rise in long-term yields and a curve steepening move, as tariff reimbursements could act as a stimulus. But reaction may be limited, since tariffs could potentially be reimposed via alternative authorities. Other data this past week reflected ongoing manufacturing sector weakness but somewhat firmer services sector activity, as we review herein. The upcoming week will shift attention to the inflation-side of the Fed’s mandate, with Tuesday’s Consumer Price report likely to be the highlight two weeks before the January 28th FOMC outcome.

12/19/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending December 19, 2025

The past week provided data points directly related to the Fed’s dual mandate on inflation and employment. Owing to the government shutdown in the Fall, the delayed data releases have contained a fair bit of noise and quirks. Essentially, fresher data in January should provide a better picture of economic trends. Please see herein for further color. Note that there is a plethora of government shutdown-delayed data that may be announced and released on shorter notice over the next three weeks. The jobs report for December will be released on January 9 and thereby get this data point back on its standard release schedule.

12/12/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending December 12, 2025

The highlight of the past week was the December 10 FOMC outcome. The expected 25-bps cut was delivered, although there were three dissents on the decision, the most since 2019. Reflecting the diversity of opinion at the Fed, two dissents were in favor of no rate move and one dissent, unsurprisingly the most recent appointee, favored a 50-bps cut. Chairman Powell declared that gradual labor market cooling justified the rate cut but that “risk management” cuts are likely now over, absent clear and more severe labor market weakness, since policy is closer to neutral. “We are well positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves from here,” Powell stated in his press conference. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) was relatively unchanged from September; GDP was marked modestly higher, and there was little change to inflation and unemployment rate projections. The dot plot, despite a wide range of participant projections, remained the same and still reflects a yearend-2026 median projection of 3.375%. Chair Powell sounded relatively relaxed about inflation and optimistic that it would gradually return to the Fed’s 2% target, especially if/when tariff impacts fully feed through the economy and potentially dissipate. Indeed, he stated that “it’s really tariffs causing inflation overshoots”. The FOMC meeting produced notable news relevant to money markets; please see herein for further information.

12/05/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending December 05, 2025

The highlight of the upcoming week will be the December 10th FOMC meeting. While the probability of a 25-bps Fed cut fell to ~30% at one juncture in the last week of November, it subsequently rebounded higher and now hovers ~90%. In public comments, various Fed members had expressed concern about inflationary pressures, but others subsequently expressed firm comfort with another cut. Economic data has been overall mixed but appears to have revealed enough of a weak tone for another “risk management” rate ease. With the government shutdown over, some delayed data has been released, however, much of it has been stale and many reports are still to be scheduled/released. This situation makes economic assessments and the Fed’s decision more difficult, and the ongoing tug-of-war between employment and inflation forces should spur lively debate within the Fed and likely some dissents on the official outcome. Note that a fresh Summary of Economic Projections, aka “dot plot”, will be released along with the rate decision and statement.

11/21/2025

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending November 21, 2025

The eagerly anticipated September employment situation report, per details in our charts section, did not cement another cut or a pause at the December 10th FOMC. The tug-of-war between employment and inflation forces should persist, and Fed member viewpoints on conditions should make for lively debate within the Fed. In the past week, multiple Fed members expressed concern about inflation. In reaction, the market has downgraded the chances of another imminent cut. Additionally, the October FOMC Minutes released this past week revealed increasing mentions of inflation concerns, despite the 25-bps cut that was delivered. The upcoming week contains a slew of reports crammed into a holiday-shortened week. Some of the backlog of federal government-issued data is still to be scheduled, and more announcements are expected in the week ahead.

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