Member Services Desk Weekly Market Update

The Member Services Desk (MSD) Weekly Market Update was developed in response to member feedback and strives to deliver timely, relevant insights that support member business objectives. Each Friday, the update provides an overview of current market trends and key developments.

If you would like to receive the MSD Weekly Market Update in .pdf format (includes FHLBNY rate charts) or to discuss this content further, please email the MSD Team.

Recent Weekly Market Updates

04/24/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending April 24, 2026

The extended now-with-no-end-date Mideast ceasefire has instilled a steadier backdrop to markets and limited rate changes, although the situation remains tenuous. Data released over the week was generally better-than-expected. Retail sales posted a M-o-M increase, although the figure is not adjusted for inflation, and Pending Home Sales flashed a hopeful M-o-M rise. Senate hearings on the prospective new Fed Chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, were held, but it is too early to evoke forecasts on the topic. The week ahead serves a busy slate of economic reports, although the highlight may be the April 29th FOMC outcome and the subsequent press conference. At this stage, the Fed is widely expected to remain on hold and note the ongoing uncertainty from the Mideast conflict and its potential impacts. The markets, meanwhile, remain in a tense yet hopeful pattern that the ceasefire will hold and limit further economic or market repercussions.

04/17/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending April 17, 2026

The past week was mostly dictated by Mideast war news, with the ongoing ceasefire instilling a steadier backdrop to markets. Data released over the week was of a second-tier nature and proved inconsequential, in terms of notable rates movements. The Mideast conflict and its impacts should continue to be the dominant driver of markets; for now, markets are in a hopeful pattern that the ceasefire will hold and limit further economic or market repercussions.

04/10/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending April 10, 2026

The past week was largely dictated by Mideast war news, with news of a ceasefire prompting a rebound in stock and bond prices and a decline off the recent highs in oil prices. The release of the FOMC Minutes from the March 17-18 meeting underscored that the Mideast conflict has complicated the Fed’s already-cautious stance on further rate cuts. The Minutes revealed that officials are concerned that a moderation in inflation could be delayed because of tariffs, oil prices, and the risk that years of above-target inflation has made consumers and businesses more accustomed to price increases. The Minutes underscored increasingly two-sided risks, namely the upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment, as well as the uncertainty of Mideast impacts which should continue to be the dominant driver of markets.

04/03/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending April 03, 2026

The past week was relatively devoid of high-impact data, and market direction was largely dictated by Mideast war news. The market’s pricing of the Fed, meanwhile, has shifted yet again and reversed some of its notable upward move of the past month; please see herein for more information. Essentially, the possible detrimental economic impacts of a prolonged conflict may now, at current yield levels, be serving as a counterweight to the inflationary impacts. The Mideast war should continue to be the dominant driver of markets, and it is an uncertain dynamic. Indeed, prediction markets, as of Thursday, price the odds of a ceasefire by the end of April at ~25% and by the end of June at ~59%. Subsequent to the monthly employment report released just prior to this Weekly Update hitting inboxes, the upcoming week will serve a slate of potentially impactful inflation data.

03/27/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending March 27, 2026

The past week was relatively devoid of high-impact data, and market direction was largely dictated by Mideast war news. The market’s pricing of the Fed, meanwhile, has shifted notably upward in the past month; please see herein for more information. The week ahead serves a busy slate of data, highlighted by the end-of-week monthly jobs report, generally considered the most influential datasets for markets. Note that next Friday is Good Friday and an early market close; we encourage members to connect with us on timing and best execution related to this timeframe. The Mideast war should continue to be the dominant driver of markets, and it is an uncertain dynamic. Indeed, prediction markets, as of Thursday, price the odds of a ceasefire by the end of April at ~”50-50”.

03/20/2026

MSD Weekly Market Update: Week Ending March 20, 2026

The past week’s FOMC meeting delivered no rate move, as expected. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), meanwhile, contained a handful of modest changes. Real GDP was marked a few tenths of a percent higher over the next few years, unemployment was marked .1% higher in 2027, and inflation was revised slightly higher in this year and next. The “dot plot” of fed funds rate projections was unchanged from December, except for a .125% upward revision to the longer run projection. In his press conference, Chair Powell declared that a rate cut hinged on improvements in inflation, and the market pushed rates higher in response, with strategists dubbing the overall FOMC outcome as a “hawkish pause”. Only one committee member, Governor Miran, dissented, as expected, in favor of a rate cut. The theme of uncertainty, given the Mideast war, was repeated multiple times by Powell, and he also downplayed the importance of the dot plot. The market’s pricing of the Fed has shifted notably upward in the past month; please see herein for more information. The week ahead offers a lighter slate of mostly second-tier data, and so Fed commentary and war developments will play a central role in any market moves.

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