Member Services Desk Weekly Market Update

This MSD Weekly Market Update reflects information for the week ending November 7, 2025.

Economist Views

THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR HIGHLIGHTS
Date Time	Event	Period	Survey	Prior
11/11/25 6:00	NFIB Small Business Optimism	Oct	--	98.80
11/12/25 7:00	MBA Mortgage Applications	7-Nov	--	-1.90%
11/13/25 8:30	Initial Jobless Claims	8-Nov	--	--
11/13/25 8:30	CPI MoM	Oct	0.30%	0.30%
11/13/25 8:30	CPI YoY	Oct	3.10%	3.00%
11/13/25 8:30	Continuing Claims	1-Nov	--	--
11/13/25 14:00	Federal Budget Balance	Oct	$55.0b	$198.0b
11/14/25 8:30	Retail Sales Advance MoM	Oct	--	--
11/14/25 8:30	PPI Final Demand MoM	Oct	--	--
11/14/25 10:00	Business Inventories	Sep	--	--

The past week would normally have provided a slew of influential data, including the monthly jobs report, but much of it was again on pause because of the government shutdown. The private data released in the past week generally posted slightly better-than-expectations results. The ISM manufacturing report was a bit below expectations and lower from last month, while the ISM Services report was better than expectations and higher from a month ago. Perhaps this dichotomy is partially a result of differing tariff impacts on sectors such as good vs. services. The services report also reflected higher prices being paid. The ADP jobs report, meanwhile, staged a modest rebound. The week ahead will be interrupted by a bond market holiday on Tuesday, and many data points will be delayed absent a shutdown resolution. Meanwhile, the tariff policy case now in front of the Supreme Court will be a topic to monitor, although potential market impacts are a bit murky at this stage.   

NFIB Small Business Optimism: The index for October will provide a barometer of sentiment and conditions in the sector. The overall index for September posted at 98.8, with the NFIB releasing the following summary comments: “Optimism among small business owners decreased in September. While most owners evaluate their own business as currently healthy, they are having to manage rising inflationary pressures, slower sales expectations, and ongoing labor market challenges. Although uncertainty is high, small business owners remain resilient as they seek to better understand how policy changes will impact their operations.” 

MBA Mortgage Applications: Applications registered a 1.9% decline in the past week, following a 7.1% gain the week prior. The uptick in rates over the past week likely dampened activity, and so a reversion to lower rates may be needed to spark a sustained revival in activity, especially in refinancings. 

Jobless Claims Report: Subject to delay, issued by Department of Labor. Data recently released by individual states has generally portrayed “sideways” conditions, with initial claims remaining relatively steady but continuing claims remaining elevated and thereby indicating that workers are enduring a harder process in landing new positions.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report: The important inflation data will be subject to delay, issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Federal Budget Balance: After September’s corporate tax date-driven $198bn surplus, the balance is expected to decline in October to a $55bn surplus, with the government shutdown likely providing support to a monthly surplus because of the lack of government payments being issued.

Retail Sales Report: Issued by the Census Bureau, the data will be subject to delay.

Producer Price Index (PPI) Report: Another potentially insightful dataset that will be subject to delay, issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Business Inventories Report: Issued by the Census Bureau, the data will be subject to delay.

Federal Reserve Bank Appearances:

11/07/2025 15:00  Fed's Miran Speaks on Stablecoins and Monetary Policy

11/12/2025 10:00  Fed's Paulson speaks on Fintech

11/12/2025 12:15  Fed's Bostic Speaks at Atlanta Economics Club

11/13/2025 12:15  Fed's Musalem Speaks at a Fireside Chat on Monetary Policy

UPCOMING WEEK'S US TREASURY AUCTIONS
Bills	Offering Amount	Auction Date
4-Week; 8-Week	110 Bln; 95 Bln	11/13
13-Week; 26-Week	86 Bln; 77 Bln	11/10
6-Week	95 Bln	11/10
Notes	Offering Amount	Auction Date
3-Year	58 Bln	11/10
10-Year	42 Bln	11/12
Bonds	Offering Amount	Auction Date
30-Year	25 Bln	11/13

Key Market Trends

Sources: Bloomberg; ADP. With the absence of the BLS’ employment report this week, the market must look to other less high-profile reports for direction. While historically maligned by some for its predictive power on BLS payroll figures, the ADP data has nonetheless usually been able to portray a trend consistent with that of BLS payrolls. After a two-month decline, the ADP report released this past week registered a modest 42K rebound for October. The result was generally consistent with a softening demand for labor, however, with large companies accounting for increases but small businesses registering declines.  

Sources: Bloomberg; Conference Board. While the ADP figure rebounded and state-reported initial jobless claims have largely tracked sideways and failed to portray worrisome signs, other indicators point to a generally sluggish and less fluid labor market. Shown here is October’s Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey jobs differential, or the percentage of respondents saying jobs are plentiful less those saying jobs are hard to get. Whereas it posted a very mild rebound from September, it has been on a downward trend throughout 2025. Given an increased number of high-profile job reduction announcements from large companies in recent weeks, the trend in sentiment and payrolls will bear monitoring this month.    

Source: Bloomberg. Top pane is yield (LHS, %); bottom pane is change (LHS, bps). As of Thursday afternoon, the UST term curve was 1-4 bps lower from the week prior, with the yields on the short end lower by 4bps and the 10-year just 1bp lower. Data was generally a tad better than expected. As of Thursday afternoon, the market priced end-2025 Fed Funds at 3.70%, or 1 bps lower than a week ago and which equates to ~65% chance of another 25-bps rate cut at the December 10th FOMC. The market’s end-2026 forward is ~3.03%, or 3 bps lower than a week ago.

Source: Bloomberg. Stress in financing markets and upward pressure on repo rates and SOFR has been a dominant theme in our recent issues. In addition to higher-than-expected net T-bill issuance, another factor in the stress of the past month has been the government shutdown and the lack of payments going out from Treasury. These factors led to an increase in the Treasury General Account (TGA) beyond its previously stated target of $850bn. Indeed, after beginning the month at ~$819bn, the TGA reached over $1trn on October 30th and now resides ~$940bn. The increase in the TGA essentially removed liquidity from the system and led to a drop in bank reserves. Last week’s FOMC brought some potential relief to this stress, as the Fed announced, beginning December 1st, the end of portfolio runoff and the start of reinvestment of Agency and Agency MBS principal into T-bills. This process will help to stem the liquidity drainage and decline of bank reserves. Also, if/when it occurs, a resolution to the government shutdown will “free” payments to be made from Treasury and thereby draw down the TGA and add liquidity to the system. As seen here in the market’s pricing of SOFR/Fed Funds spread (SOFR minus Fed Funds) futures, relief is priced into the curve, as SOFR is much less elevated to Fed Funds at forward dates. Indeed, at 13 bps mid-week, the spread has already narrowed notably from the start of this past week. Still, some strategists expect the spread to narrow a few bps further once the above dynamics more clearly unfold. And this development will hopefully lead to less volatility in our shortest, particularly Overnight, advance tenors.             

FHLBNY Advance Rates Observations

Front-End Rates

• As of midday Thursday, short-end rates were mixed on the front end, 1-week advance rates were 3 bps lower, while 1-month advance rates were 2 bps higher and 3 to 6-month advance rates were 1 bp lower vs. the week prior as maturities moved further into the timeline of the Fed’s projected rate cuts. Positive net T-bill issuance and upward pressure on short-end financing rates and SOFR, as covered in our recent editions, persists and continues to inject volatility into the shortest advance tenors. The prevailing and relatively elevated SOFR-to-Fed Funds spread appears likely to persist in the very near-term. But it notably eased this mid-week from month-end levels, and, per color in the previous section, more relief could lie ahead. Net T-bill supply is also projected to turn negative in December. Money Market Fund AUM remains near record high levels and has supported our paper.
• The markets will monitor the limited data flow, Fedspeak, and any announcements regarding a shutdown resolution.          

Term Rates

• The longer-term curve, as of Thursday afternoon and generally mirroring the moves in USTs and swaps, was lower by 3-6 bps. Kindly refer to the previous section for color on market dynamics and changes.  
• On the UST term supply front, the upcoming week serves a hefty slate of 3/10/30-year auctions which will each settle on the 17th. Note that UST auctions usually occur at 1pm and can occasionally spur volatility around that time. Please contact the Member Service Desk for further information on market dynamics, rate levels, or products.