Member Services Desk Weekly Market Update

This MSD Weekly Market Update reflects information for the week ending November 14, 2025.

Economist Views

THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR HIGHLIGHTS
Date Time	Event	Period	Survey	Prior
Date Time	Event	Period	Survey	Prior
11/17/25 8:30	Empire Manufacturing	Nov	7.60	10.70
11/18/25 8:30	New York Fed Services Business Activity	Nov	--	-23.60
11/18/25 9:15	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	Oct	0.10%	--
11/18/25 9:15	Capacity Utilization	Oct	77.30%	--
11/18/25 10:00	NAHB Housing Market Index	Nov	--	37.00
11/19/25 7:00	MBA Mortgage Applications	14-Nov	--	0.60%
11/19/25 8:30	Housing Starts	Oct	--	1,307k
11/19/25 8:30	Building Permits	Oct P	--	--
11/20/25 10:00	Existing Home Sales	Oct	4.08m	4.06m
11/21/25 10:00	U. of Mich. Sentiment	Nov F	--	50.30

The past week was bereft of influential economic data. However, given the government shutdown resolution, a bevy of data should hit the calendar in the weeks ahead. Scheduling is still in a “TBA” state as of this writing. Recent private data reports have generally reflected a softening labor market and thereby kept the odds of another 25-bps Fed ease in December near the “50-50” pricing level, despite inflation-related data and sentiment remaining above the Fed’s 2% target. Essentially, a tug-of-war persists between employment and inflation forces, and these conditions should make for lively debate within the Fed regarding policy. The week ahead offers a slew of data, but much of it may still be delayed. Meanwhile, the tariff policy case before the Supreme Court will remain a topic to monitor, although potential market impacts are a bit murky at this stage.

Empire Manufacturing Report for NY State: Activity rebounded in October from September’s notable dip, and so the report will reveal if the rebound was sustained this month.

New York Fed Services Business Activity: The October survey revealed that activity fell more sharply than in recent months in the NY-Northern NJ region, with the headline index falling to a multi-year low. The fresh report will provide an update on current conditions and sentiment.

Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization: Subject to further delay.

NAHB Housing Market Index: The release will provide an updated gauge of the single-family housing market.

Housing Starts & Building Permits: Subject to further delay.

FOMC Minutes: Given the diversity of opinion in the FOMC, the Minutes of the October 29th meeting may provide helpful guidance on sentiment within the Fed regarding further rate cuts.

Initial Jobless Claims: Subject to further delay.

Existing Home Sales: The report for October is expected to post a mild uptick of .4% month-on-month from the prior figure of 4.06mn. The sector continues to struggle with affordability constraints.

S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite Purchasing Managers Indices: While both sectors were, if only slightly, in expansion territory last month, the November preliminary report will reveal if this status is still the case and if manufacturing continues to lag vs. services.

University of Michigan Consumer Report (Final): Last week’s preliminary report fell to the lowest on record, owing to concerns regarding labor market conditions and pricing, The final report may reveal improvement in sentiment due to less anxiety over the government shutdown, but the shutdown resolution may have been too late to feed into this month’s results

Federal Reserve Bank Member Appearances:

• 11/14/2025 10:05  Kansas City Fed President Schmid speaks on monetary policy and the economic outlook at the KC and Dallas Fed's energy conference
• 11/17/2025 9:00  NY Fed President Williams welcome remarks at 2025 Governance and Culture Reform Conference in NYC
• 11/19/2025 14:00  NY Fed President Williams delivers welcome remarks at event "Making Missing Markets: Connecting Communities and Capital" in NYC
• 11/20/2025 13:40  Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks in moderated discussion at the CFA Society of Indianapolis' annual lunch

UPCOMING WEEK'S US TREASURY AUCTIONS
Bills	Offering Amount	Auction Date
4-Week; 8-Week	110 Bln; 95 Bln	11/20
13-Week; 26-Week	86 Bln; 77 Bln	11/17
6-Week	95 Bln	11/18
TIPs	Offering Amount	Auction Date
9-Year 8-Month	19 Bln	11/20
Bonds	Offering Amount	Auction Date
20-Year	16 Bln	11/19

 

Key Market Trends

Sources: Bloomberg; National Federation Independent Businesses (NFIB). This past week’s release of the October NFIB Small Business Optimism headline index (White, RHS-1) posted a modest decline from the prior month to a multi-month low of 98.2. The component contributing most to the dip was the frequency of reports of positive profit trends (Gold, RHS-2, %) which fell 9 points from September to a net negative 25%; this month-on-month dip was the biggest since 2020. Interestingly, 27% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem (Green, LHS-1), up 9 points from September and the highest level since the record high of 29% in November 2021 and thereby indicating that labor market mismatches are present. Note that the FHLB-NY has annually offered our members a chance to support small businesses via our Small Business Recovery Grant program. We recently completed the 2025 round, with total program grants of $7.5mn (maximum grant of $10K per recipient) to support local small businesses, farms, and non-profits across our region that have faced financial challenges due to adverse market or economic conditions.

Sources: Bloomberg; Automatic Data Processing (ADP). With the lack of federal government-issued data, the markets have tried to discern trends in both state-level and private jobs reports. In last week’s edition, we reported that ADP’s payrolls figure (Gold bars) posted a rise of 42K for October. ADP also has begun publishing weekly moving average figures, and this week’s release threw some cold water on that 42K gain, as the weekly 4-week moving average was reported at -11.25K. A takeaway from this data might be that the monthly job gains were very early in the month, but then losses were incurred in the ensuing weeks of October. While labor market dynamics remain murky, owing to a lack of data, the overall portrait of a less dynamic labor market has underpinned chances of another 25-bps Fed ease in December.

Source: Bloomberg. Top pane is yield (LHS, %); bottom pane is change (LHS, bps). As of Thursday afternoon, the UST term curve was mildly higher from the week prior, with tenors higher by a few bps. The lack of economic data has removed catalysts for larger moves, at least for now. But an onslaught of data can be expected in the month ahead, as delayed reports are scheduled and released, and this dynamic may inject a dose of volatility to the market. A few Fed speakers this past week expressed concern over inflation, and the market has downgraded its pricing of a rate cut next month. As of Thursday afternoon, the market priced end-2025 Fed Funds at 3.75%, or 5 bps higher than a week ago and which equates to ~48% chance of another 25-bps rate cut at the December 10th FOMC. The market’s end-2026 forward is ~3.06%, or 3 bps higher than a week ago.

Source: Bloomberg. Here we revisit a chart that we presented four weeks ago. Shown is the spread (RHS, %) between the 3-month SOFR swap and the 3-month T-bill yield; for clarity, the spread is 3-month SOFR swap minus 3-month T-bill. Amid the indigestion in short-term rate markets brought on by higher-than-expected T-bill issuance, T-bills had notably cheapened vs. SOFR swaps in mid-October. This dynamic, in turn, spurred volatility and elevated conditions in our short-term advance rates. As can be seen here, however, T-bills have normalized and richened from the mid-October levels and thereby benefited our issuance and advance levels. With net T-bill issuance expected to moderate in December, in tandem with Fed portfolio reinvestments into T-bills beginning on December 1st, the normalization has a few tailwinds to potentially keep it sustainable.

FHLBNY Advance Rates Observations

Front-End Rates

• As of midday Thursday and vs. a week ago, short-end rates were 1 to 6 bps lower out to 3-month and unchanged thereafter. The 1-month tenor led the declines. Positive net T-bill issuance and upward pressure on short-end financing rates and SOFR, as covered in our editions over the last two months, persists and continues to inject some volatility into the shortest advance tenors, and the prevailing and relatively elevated SOFR-to-Fed Funds spread appears likely to persist in the very near-term. But these conditions have notably eased in the past week and from October month-end levels. Net T-bill supply is also projected to turn negative in December, and the Fed will begin portfolio reinvestment into T-bills in December. Money Market Fund AUM, meanwhile, remains near record high levels and has supported our paper. 
• The markets will monitor the limited data flow, Fedspeak, and any announcements regarding data releases post the shutdown resolution.

Term Rates

• The longer-term curve, as of Thursday afternoon and generally mirroring the moves in USTs and swaps, was ~2 bps, on average, higher than a week ago. Kindly refer to the previous section for color on market dynamics and changes.
• On the UST term supply front, the upcoming week serves a 20-year nominal and a 10-year TIPS auction. Note that UST auctions usually occur at 1pm and can occasionally spur volatility around that time. Please contact the Member Service Desk for further information on market dynamics, rate levels, or products.