Member Services Desk Weekly Market Update

This MSD Weekly Market Update reflects information for the week ending November 21, 2025.

Economist Views

THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR HIGHLIGHTS
Date Time	Event	Period	Survey	Prior
11/25/25 8:30	Retail Sales Advance MoM	Sep	--	0.60%
11/25/25 8:30	PPI Final Demand MoM	Sep	--	-0.10%
11/25/25 8:30	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	Sep	--	-0.10%
11/25/25 9:00	FHFA House Price Index MoM	Sep	--	0.40%
11/25/25 9:00	S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA	Sep	--	0.19%
11/25/25 10:00	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	Nov	93.30	94.60
11/25/25 10:00	Pending Home Sales MoM	Oct	--	0.00%
11/26/25 7:00	MBA Mortgage Applications	21-Nov	--	-5.20%
11/26/25 8:30	Initial Jobless Claims	22-Nov
11/26/25 8:30	GDP Annualized QoQ	3Q S

Please note that the Weekly Market Update will return on Friday, December 5th; Happy Thanksgiving!

The eagerly anticipated September employment situation report, per details in our charts section, did not cement another cut or a pause at the December 10th FOMC. The tug-of-war between employment and inflation forces should persist, and Fed member viewpoints on conditions should make for lively debate within the Fed. In the past week, multiple Fed members expressed concern about inflation. In reaction, the market has downgraded the chances of another imminent cut. Additionally, the October FOMC Minutes released this past week revealed increasing mentions of inflation concerns, despite the 25-bps cut that was delivered. The upcoming week contains a slew of reports crammed into a holiday-shortened week. Some of the backlog of federal government-issued data is still to be scheduled, and more announcements are expected in the week ahead.

Retail Sales Report: The delayed report for September will be released and will provide further information, albeit somewhat stale, on actual behavior of the consumer sector.

Producer Price Index (PPI) Report: The delayed report for September will provide color on inflation trends, and its components will be dissected to discern areas of potential concern.

FHFA House Price Index: Following September’s month-on-month rise of .4%, the October figure may add to evidence of a decelerating trend.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: The report’s 20-City and National indices will provide an update on residential real estate trends and if price deceleration has remained intact.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Report: This month’s report is expected to post a slight retreat from last month on the overall headline index, as sentiment has faltered in recent months.

Pending Home Sales: Sales for October are expected to post a flat reading from the month prior and thereby hint at an overall slow-moving residential housing sector.

MBA Mortgage Applications: The index fell 5.2% in this past week’s release, as rates have ticked up from a few weeks ago. With holiday periods approaching, it appears that lower rates will be even more necessary to generate increased activity.

Initial Jobless Claims: This data point returned this past week and posted a 4-week moving average of 224.25K, and Continuing Claims of 1947K remain elevated vs. months earlier in the year.

GDP Report Q3: Data may still be delayed.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index Report: Fresh data on the Fed’s favored inflation gauge appears also, as of this writing, likely to be delayed. 

Federal Reserve Bank Member Appearances:

• 11/21/2025 8:30   Fed's Barr Gives Welcoming Remarks at the College Fed Challenge in D.C.
• 11/21/2025 8:45   Fed's Jefferson Speaks on Financial Stability at Cleveland Fed Financial Stability Conference
• 11/21/2025 9:00   Fed's Logan Speaks at Conference in Switzerland
• 11/26/2025 14:00 Fed releases Beige Book on current conditions throughout its districts. Given the lack of data releases, this report may be of more consequence than usual for the December FOMC.

UPCOMING WEEK'S US TREASURY AUCTIONS
Bills	Offering Amount	Auction Date
4-Week; 8-Week	110 Bln; 95 Bln	11/26
13-Week; 26-Week	86 Bln; 77 Bln	11/24
6-Week	85 Bln	11/25
52-week	50 Bln	11/25
Notes	Offering Amount	Auction Date
2-Year; 5-Year	69 Bln; 70 Bln	11/24; 11/25
7-Year	44 Bln	11/26
FRN's	Offering Amount	Auction Date
1-Year 11-Month	28 bln	11/25

Key Market Trends

Sources: Bloomberg; Bureau of Labor Statistics. Whereas the markets eagerly awaited Thursday morning’s release of the September employment situation report, the data itself delivered a somewhat muddled portrait of conditions. This result, as well as the fact that the data is nearly two months stale, likely failed to provide clarity to the Fed for its December decision. Indeed, it may add to debate within the Fed. The nonfarm payrolls posted a solid rebound of 119K from August’s 4K decline and thereby revealed a labor market that by no means is in freefall. However, the unemployment rate ticked 12 bps higher to 4.44%. Also released on Thursday was a bevy of jobless claims data. As seen here, the Continuing Claims figure jumped and remains in a decidedly higher range than what prevailed earlier in the year. A basic takeaway is that the out-of-work cohort is having a more difficult time landing new positions. Indeed, a less dynamic labor market has been portrayed in various other recent data releases and surveys. The next jobs report for November (a separate report for October will not be released) is scheduled for December 16th which is after the December 10th FOMC. This situation may spur more policymakers to favor a pause. In this light, it appears sensible for the market to price the odds of a December rate cut at a bit below “50/50”.

Sources: Bank of America (BofA) Global Fund Manager Survey; Bloomberg. Regarding potential looming risks to the economy and financial system, the area of private credit and equity has recently picked up a head of steam attention-wise. Shown here is the latest BofA survey of fund managers which revealed that 59% of respondents view private credit/equity as the most likely source of a systemic credit event. In this past week’s release of the October FOMC Minutes, some participants noted that there were various reasons for concern about the private credit sector. Concerns included risks related to loan quality, funding practices and “hidden leverage”, underwriting and collateral practices, banks’ exposure to the sector via lending to non-bank financial institutions (a major driver of US bank loan growth this year), lack of regulatory framework, and the possibility of risks impacting the real economy.

Source: Bloomberg. Top pane is yield (LHS, %); bottom pane is change (LHS, bps). As of Thursday afternoon, in another week of subdued moves, the UST term curve was lower by a few bps. The 3-year led the way via a ~5-bps decline. Data released over the week was generally mixed, and the market marked down its pricing of an imminent Fed cut. As of Thursday afternoon, the market priced end-2025 Fed Funds at 3.79%, or 4 bps higher than a week ago and which equates to ~36% chance of another 25-bps rate cut at the December 10th FOMC. The market’s end-2026 forward is ~2.99%, or 8 bps lower than a week ago. The market, in this repricing, has essentially increased the odds of a pause and then further cuts next year.

Source: The recent upward stress on short-end financing markets and SOFR could have been even worse if not for money market funds (MMF). Currently residing at or near record-high levels, MMF AUM (White, RHS, $trn) has helped to absorb increased T-bill issuance from the rebuilding of the Treasury General Account (TGA, Green, LHS-1, $bn) post the July 4th debt ceiling resolution. As they absorbed some of the increased T-bill issuance, MMFs shifted funds out of the Fed’s Reverse Repurchase Facility (RRP, Gold, LHS-2, $bn). MMFs have become a primary space to park cash, and the growth in AUM is likely to continue, owing to the inverted short-end curve and sizable reinvestment of coupons. Given their demand for short paper, MMFs have benefited spreads on our issuance and, in turn, advance rates.

FHLBNY Advance Rates Observations

Front-End Rates

• As of midday Thursday and vs. a week ago, short-end rates were mostly unchanged to up/down by a bp. The Overnight advance rate dipped by 8 bps, as pressures in the short-term financing markets eased during the week, best evidenced in SOFR declining to less elevated levels. Positive net T-bill issuance and upward pressure on short-end financing rates and SOFR, as covered in our editions over the last two months, persists but to a much lesser degree than mid-October. Pressures could return in the week ahead, however, as GSE funds exit the market to pay MBS coupons. Also, there is continued net positive T-bill issuance in the upcoming week, in addition to hefty UST auction settlements on December 1st. Thereafter, net T-bill issuance is projected to turn negative in December, and the Fed will begin portfolio reinvestment into T-bills in December. Also, with the shutdown resolved, payments will now go out from the Treasury General Account and thereby put funds back into the financial system. Money Market Fund AUM remains near record high levels and has supported our paper out the curve.
• The markets will monitor the data deluge and Fed commentary in the week ahead.

Term Rates

• The longer-term curve, as of Thursday afternoon and generally mirroring the moves in USTs and swaps, was 1 to 6 bps lower than a week ago. The 3-year led the move. Kindly refer to the previous section for color on market dynamics and changes.
• On the UST term supply front, the upcoming week serves 2/5/7-year auctions which will each settle on December 1st. Note that UST auctions usually occur at 1pm and can occasionally spur volatility around that time. Please contact the Member Service Desk for further information on market dynamics, rate levels, or products