Member Services Desk Weekly Market Update

This MSD Weekly Market Update reflects information for the week ending March 27, 2026.

Economist Views

THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR HIGHLIGHTS
Date Time	Event	Period	Survey	Prior
3/31/26 9:00	FHFA House Price Index MoM	Jan	--	0.10%
3/31/26 9:00	S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA	Jan	--	0.47%
3/31/26 10:00	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	Mar	88.80	91.20
3/31/26 10:00	JOLTS Job Openings	Feb	--	6,946k
4/1/26 7:00	MBA Mortgage Applications	27-Mar	--	-10.50%
4/1/26 8:15	ADP Employment Change	Mar	--	63k
4/1/26 8:30	Retail Sales Advance MoM	Feb	--	-0.20%
4/1/26 10:00	ISM Manufacturing	Mar	52.10	52.40
4/2/26 8:30	Initial Jobless Claims	28-Mar	--	210k
4/3/26 8:30	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	Mar	51k	-92k

The past week was relatively devoid of high-impact data, and market direction was largely dictated by Mideast war news. The market’s pricing of the Fed, meanwhile, has shifted notably upward in the past month; please see herein for more information. The week ahead serves a busy slate of data, highlighted by the end-of-week monthly jobs report, generally considered the most influential datasets for markets. Note that next Friday is Good Friday and an early market close; we encourage members to connect with us on timing and best execution related to this timeframe. The Mideast war should continue to be the dominant driver of markets, and it is an uncertain dynamic. Indeed, prediction markets, as of Thursday, price the odds of a ceasefire by the end of April at ~”50-50”.

FHFA House Price Index: The January data will follow the prior month’s .1% M-o-M reading and provide an updated portrait of single-family home prices.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Report: More housing data for January will be released via this report’s various indices. The national index posted a 1.27% Y-o-Y gain in December.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence: The headline index ticked a bit higher last month, and so the fresh reading will reveal if that has been sustained in March. The survey will also reveal consumer sentiment on present situation and expectations.

Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS): The BLS’ release for February will provide a fresh dataset on openings, quits, and layoffs.

Mortgage Applications: Given the start of spring homebuying season, increased activity was potentially on the horizon. But the past week’s headline index fell by 10.5%, the third decline in a row, led by a dip in refinancings and surely impacted by the rise in rates this month.

ADP Monthly Employment: The March figure for private payrolls may dip a bit from last month’s 63K, judging by the ADP’s weekly 4-week moving average dataset.

Retail Sales: The report for February will reveal if sales improved from a weak .2% M-o-M headline decline in the prior month. The ex-food & gas number was higher by .3% M-o-M last month.

ISM Manufacturing: March’s survey figure is forecast at 52.1, a slight dip from last month’s 52.4 but still in above-50 expansion territory. Data on orders, prices, and employment will be included.

Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims: Initial claims in the last week again posted at 210K, with the 4-week moving average relatively steady at 210.75K. Continuing Claims registered a 32K decrease on the week, and, in so doing, hit a 2-year low after having risen in mid-2025. Overall, this dataset continues to portray a relatively steady yet non-dynamic labor market.

Employment Situation Report: March’s payrolls figures are expected to rebound from last month’s negative readings and reflect a moderate gain. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4%, and multiple other labor market data points will be included in the report.

Federal Reserve Bank Member Appearances:

• 3/30/2026 16:00 NY Fed President Williams speaks on the economy at event.
• 3/31/2026 12:00 Chicago Fed President Goolsbee gives opening remarks at Economic Mobility Project.
• 4/01/2026 09:05 St. Louis Fed's Musalem speaks on economy and monetary policy at American Enterprise event.

UPCOMING WEEK'S US TREASURY AUCTIONS
Bills	Offering Amount	Auction Date -- Settle Date
4-Week; 8-Week	$85bn; $80bn	4/2 -- 4/7
13-Week; 26-Week	$89bn; $77bn	3/30 -- 4/2
6-Week	$75bn	3/31 -- 4/2
Notes	Offering Amount	Auction Date -- Settle Date
No scheduled Note offerings.
Bonds	Offering Amount	Auction Date -- Settle Date
No scheduled Bond offerings.

Key Market Trends

Source: Bloomberg. In the post-FOMC press conference on March 18th, Chair Powell made a somewhat offhand comment to treat the Fed’s rate projections, aka dot plot, with a “grain of salt”, given that it reflects what members believe to be the most likely case at a time of extreme uncertainty. As seen here, the market has apparently taken that comment and run with it! At this juncture and much different than a month ago, the markets price for a chance of hikes over the next year. The short-end curve has dis-inverted. Moreover, forwards trade well above the latest dot plot projections. Given that much of the repricing has occurred since the onset of the Mideast war, a resolution to the conflict may spark a “relief” reaction in markets; hence, the conflict is a main focal point for market direction.

Source: Bloomberg. Top pane is yield (LHS, %); bottom pane is change (LHS, bps). As of late Thursday, the UST term curve was higher than a week ago, led by the 2- to 7-year zone which rose by ~20 bps The recent dramatic rise in yields remains a global phenomenon, as UK and European bonds have also endured sharp selloffs. The Mideast war and investor repositioning continued to drive market direction this week. The market, meanwhile, has dramatically repriced prospective Fed policy actions. The market’s end-2026 forward is ~3.80%, ~22 bps higher than a week ago and which equates to ~63% chance of one 25-bps rate hike for the rest of 2026.

Source: Bloomberg. The onset of war and uncertainty has unleashed notable market moves and overall increased volatility. As we have noted in recent editions and its impact on mortgage rates, implied volatility (“vol”) in options markets has spiked higher from its low levels of wintertime. Shown here is a specific swaption structure, the “1-year expiry into 2-year swap”, that will serve as an accompaniment to our next chart. Its vol has climbed ~65% since end-January, with most of the increase since end-February.

Source: FHLB-NY. In relation to our Putable advance product, the rise in vol serves to improve its pricing. As a refresher, via the Putable advance, the borrower sells to FHLB-NY the option to cancel the advance early at either a single specified date (“European”) or on multiple dates (“Bermudan”) at no fee and after a pre-determined lockout period. The 1-year into 2-year swaption vol shown in our previous chart is pertinent, given that it matches the tenor and lockout period, to the pricing of a 3-year No-Put 1-year (“3NP1”) Putable advance. As can be seen here, the recent spike in vol has spurred a notable move lower in the Putable’s rate spread to the 2-year bullet (non-cancelable) advance. The 2-year bullet was chosen as a comparison point here, given that it has a similar duration at inception to a 3NP1 structure; the dynamics of the spread are similar if compared to a 1-year or 3-year bullet advance. Of course, the recent move higher in rates has outweighed the impact of vol, and so Putable advance rates have accordingly moved higher this month. But for members who may be currently booking and funding asset pipelines and are able to manage some final maturity uncertainty, the Putable advance can be a compelling term-funding alternative. Please call the desk to learn more and/or for pricing of the various structures that we offer.

 

FHLBNY Advance Rates Observations

Front-End Rates

• As of midday Thursday and compared to a week ago, short tenors were very modestly mixed. The 2-week-and-in sector edged a bp or two higher. The 3-week-and-out sector was unchanged to a bp lower, assisted by the recent moderation in net T-bill supply which has calmed financing markets while also improving spreads on our issuance. Fed purchases of T-bills via MBS portfolio principal reinvestments and its Reserve Management Purchases program have, overall, added stability to financing markets and helped to blunt any severe reactions to net positive UST and T-bill issuance. Moreover, net issuance has entered a more benign period in spring. Money Market Fund AUM, meanwhile, remains at high levels and has absorbed short-end paper and repo demand and thereby assisted as a stabilizer.
• A relatively sizable net positive UST/T-bill settlement date on the 31st, in tandem with quarter-end balance sheet dynamics, may spark some upward pressure on short-end rates, but effects are likely to mild, short-lived, and contained to the very-short and Overnight tenors. The looming tax payments season may also exert some stress, but the above-mentioned mitigants should help to prevent dramatic impacts on rates.

Term Rates

• The longer-term curve, as of Thursday afternoon and generally mirroring the moves in USTs and swaps, was notably higher. Rising by 18 to 21 bps, the 2- to 7-year sector led the move. Please refer to the previous section for color on market dynamics and changes.
• On the UST term supply front, the upcoming week serves a reprieve from auctions. Note that UST auctions usually occur at 1pm and can occasionally spur volatility around that time. Please contact the Member Services Desk for further information on market dynamics, rate levels, or products.